We hear rumors about how much PSU and MSU are spending on stars, can MN even compete for players like that?
I don’t buy the rumors, last year the line was “Matthew Wood got a $100k NIL deal to go to Minnesota”…
if this is true, an I will trust that it is, good on Bob! I will tone down my criticism of him not being willing to use NIL and the portal. Well maybe not on the portal entirely, as long as he keeps whining about age of his team, I will criticize him for not getting more age from the portal.
but this is good news. He needs to do more of this!!!
After tonight's win the Gophers are now 31 in NPI, 19 in KRACH. I realize KRACH doesn't matter but it does show how different the outlook would be if the NCAA moved to KRACH which does a much better job of factoring in strength of schedule.
the whole NPI thing actually infuriates me whenever I think about it.
(1) it’s flat out stupid to introduce such a drastic change to the sport amidst all the other (CHL, roster limits, pro eligibility) upheavals that were kicking in this season. When everything else is in flux why would you add more on top of it all?
Somehow there wasn’t enough consensus to find a workaround or solution for the absurd and stupid 26-man roster cap, but there was enough consensus to force through a nitpicky set of changes to the entire tournament selection criteria just to soothe the fixated brains of some mathematicians??
(2) the way USCHO and CHN with all their eastern biases talk with so much glee about the NPI’s differences in weights to incentivize certain results and behaviors, like home/road weights that are explicitly meant to try and force B1G/NCHC/HE teams to play in dumpy AHA and ECAC barns for 2500 fans, it rubs me the wrong way. No one wants that! It makes no financial sense for anyone! Which brings me to…
(3) if ECAC gets a bunch of extra irrelevant teams in with NPI throw it out, rework it, I don’t care. Dartmouth with their 61st-toughest schedule doesn’t deserve to be a 1/2/3 seed. I’m so sick of eastern coaches’ slimy gamesmanship with NCAA procedural crap that my instinctual response is “ok so how are you trying to screw us this time?”
we’d be 30th in pwr
typically KRACH and pairwise (and I’d presume the npi) come closer together as the year goes on. It’s part of why we have a chance to move up so much. A team in say the aha or ccha that’s in the 30s it’s over for.
Also on that note, our SOS is #1. Tough year with so many new faces to have this schedule
I was surprised how big of a leap the Gophers make in the NPI rankings with these small updates. It's been a frustrating year, and it still would be in this alternate reality, but this helps me be a feel like we are not so far removed from relevance as it initially appears when looking at the standings.
Gophers get a bit of bad luck in the 2nd half of their schedule mostly being against the top teams of the conference. 10 against Mi, MSU, and PSU in the back half. Unsure how they'll finish, but I've liked the compete in this 2nd half regardless of the scores. It feels like they're closer than the record shows.
Gophers get a bit of bad luck in the 2nd half of their schedule mostly being against the top teams of the conference. 10 against Mi, MSU, and PSU in the back half. Unsure how they'll finish, but I've liked the compete in this 2nd half regardless of the scores. It feels like they're closer than the record shows.
It's a good lesson for fans who think freshmen will help the team right away. Players like Cooley can do that but most cannot. This year's crop look nothing like they did 3 months ago, but the problem is they lost a lot of ground and probably can't make it up. The Big10 is too strong.
Players like Moore are finding some confidence. When you're thrown to the wolves you play like you don't want to make a mistake, and that can be very disrupted...bad decisions, reluctance to drive play, not taking shots, extra passes or bad passes. Now, when Moore gets the puck he plays like he's got a fire under his feet and he goes hard into the offensive zone. It's night and day from October.
Gophers get a bit of bad luck in the 2nd half of their schedule mostly being against the top teams of the conference. 10 against Mi, MSU, and PSU in the back half. Unsure how they'll finish, but I've liked the compete in this 2nd half regardless of the scores. It feels like they're closer than the record shows.
6-2 and they’re in the upper teens and still alive for an AL. 5-3 and in lower 20s. Probably need a BTT title in that scenario though a win against wisco and one of MSU or Michigan prior to a title game loss could make it close
One game at a time. If they play like this weekend, they are going to have a shot at it. Michigan got outplayed both games this weekend by OSU but OSU dropped them both. We’ll see if we get them with an emotional hangover or pissed off
Wisconsin is such a weird team because I looked at the expected goals and most games were something like 3-3 but they either got really lucky (the early MSU series) or suffered from bad goaltending/bad shooting luck (the last stretch of 6 games). Guessing they sweep Notre Dame at home but it’ll be interesting to see how their season plays out.
As for the gophers I’m under no delusion that this team is making the NCAAs and would mostly like to see improvement especially against the Michigan teams.
Wisconsin is such a weird team because I looked at the expected goals and most games were something like 3-3 but they either got really lucky (the early MSU series) or suffered from bad goaltending/bad shooting luck (the last stretch of 6 games). Guessing they sweep Notre Dame at home but it’ll be interesting to see how their season plays out.
As for the gophers I’m under no delusion that this team is making the NCAAs and would mostly like to see improvement especially against the Michigan teams.
it’s the hope that kills ya.
I am choosing to live in the delusion (or some call it belief) we win the next 4 just as I predicted in my Gopher Strike picks when they came out.
it ain’t over til it’s over and the heart from this weekend tells me the team hasn’t given up on it yet either
Also, for all the people criticizing Bob for not doing more with NIL (portal and CHL), do we have any idea how much UM even has in NIL money? …. But people just seem to assume a lot. and I would like to know if anyone knows the answer, but assume reporting on NIL isn't transparent to the general public.
That’s a fair question, and I agree NIL reporting isn’t transparent, so I’m not claiming to know how much NIL money Minnesota actually has. But my criticism of Bob isn’t about how successful he’s been with NIL or the portal. I’m not trying to measure outcomes.
My concern is more basic: he doesn’t seem interested in playing the game at all. In his public comments, he’s clear that he likes NIL when it means athletes earning money for things they do outside the sport — for example, the Middlestat brothers running a hockey camp and getting paid. What he clearly dislikes are NIL arrangements that function as contracts to pay players for signing with or staying at a program. Whether that distinction is philosophically appealing or not, it doesn’t change the reality of college athletics today.
That’s where the contrast with PJ Fleck is useful. Fleck openly acknowledges that Minnesota doesn’t have the same NIL war chest as Ohio State or Oregon, but he still articulates a strategy for how he’ll use what he does have. At the same time, he implicitly makes the point that if fans want recruits comparable to those programs, someone needs to open a wallet. It’s honest, strategic, and forward-looking.
Bob, by contrast, tends to talk about NIL and the portal as things he wishes were different, rather than tools to be leveraged. That’s the issue — not how much money we have, but whether the head coach is willing to engage the system as it actually exists.
honestly, I don’t see how you win if you refuse to play by the new rules. I think this is what we are seeing this year.
So your hypothesis is that because Bob states that he doesn't like what NIL and the Portal are doing to college hockey, that means he is avoiding even using them (except for DiPasquo, Wood..)? A person can complain about a process and still work with it. MN had a recruiting advantage over most schools prior to NIL and if they trail in the NIL department without a Pegula type donor, you could understand his frustration and maybe why you aren't seeing projected first-rounders from CHL coming in. (If you don't believe the NIL can create an imbalance, look at NCAA football where top QB's are offered more to come to a school than they will make as an NFL rookie.) We really have no way of knowing what players Bob has tried to get and what avenues he has explored.
So I might have the wifey convinced to head down for a game this weekend. What is the best place to buy tickets, Seat Geek? Hard to tell when you look at sites what the actual price will be after fees. Thanks.
So I might have the wifey convinced to head down for a game this weekend. What is the best place to buy tickets, Seat Geek? Hard to tell when you look at sites what the actual price will be after fees. Thanks.
Just buy them at face on gophersports website and avoid the extra fees.
So I might have the wifey convinced to head down for a game this weekend. What is the best place to buy tickets, Seat Geek? Hard to tell when you look at sites what the actual price will be after fees. Thanks.
For future reference, SeatGeek has a "show price with all fees included" toggle in the Filters so you will get the actual price displayed.
Also, for all the people criticizing Bob for not doing more with NIL (portal and CHL), do we have any idea how much UM even has in NIL money? We hear rumors about how much PSU and MSU are spending on stars, can MN even compete for players like that?
To beat the dead horse here in Mankato...NIL is the reason Pritchard flipped from MSU to the Gophers. Now the rumor is $50k but not sure if that is for just this year or over the time he is at the U. If they spent $50k for him one would think they would spend a hell of a lot more on other recruits.
I am theofficial Iowa Hawkeye football fan of GPL!
Also, for all the people criticizing Bob for not doing more with NIL (portal and CHL), do we have any idea how much UM even has in NIL money? We hear rumors about how much PSU and MSU are spending on stars, can MN even compete for players like that?
To beat the dead horse here in Mankato...NIL is the reason Pritchard flipped from MSU to the Gophers. Now the rumor is $50k but not sure if that is for just this year or over the time he is at the U. If they spent $50k for him one would think they would spend a hell of a lot more on other recruits.
I heard not living in Mankato was worth way more than any NIL deal anyone could offer 😉
Wisconsin is such a weird team because I looked at the expected goals and most games were something like 3-3 but they either got really lucky (the early MSU series) or suffered from bad goaltending/bad shooting luck (the last stretch of 6 games). Guessing they sweep Notre Dame at home but it’ll be interesting to see how their season plays out.
As for the gophers I’m under no delusion that this team is making the NCAAs and would mostly like to see improvement especially against the Michigan teams.
Do you know how the expected goals is calculated? I’m not thinking that it’s wrong because Wisconsin definitely had chances to score on Saturday. It’s just that there are so few stats for college hockey and not a unified system of making them (from what I can tell). That would lead me to think that expected goals can range wildly from one team to the next depending on who kept the stats.
Wisconsin is such a weird team because I looked at the expected goals and most games were something like 3-3 but they either got really lucky (the early MSU series) or suffered from bad goaltending/bad shooting luck (the last stretch of 6 games). Guessing they sweep Notre Dame at home but it’ll be interesting to see how their season plays out.
As for the gophers I’m under no delusion that this team is making the NCAAs and would mostly like to see improvement especially against the Michigan teams.
Do you know how the expected goals is calculated? I’m not thinking that it’s wrong because Wisconsin definitely had chances to score on Saturday. It’s just that there are so few stats for college hockey and not a unified system of making them (from what I can tell). That would lead me to think that expected goals can range wildly from one team to the next depending on who kept the stats.
Basically they use shot type and location to figure out the percent chance a shot should go in and calculate the expected goals off that. I don't know if CHN is tracking that or the score keepers at games though.
From CHN the expected vs. actual results by game with CHN's methodology quoted below.
The Gophers have surpassed the expected 13 times so far, their opponents 12 times.
In 6 of Minnesota's losses their OPP under-performed to the expected.
Make of it what you will.
xG Expected goals. This data is not as robust or accurate as, say, on the NHL level. But we do have access to decent shot location data, that enables us to calculate a basic xG. We take a 3-year rolling average of the shooting percentage from each each of six "areas" within the attacking zone. Then we take the amount of the player's shots from that location, and calculate what their xG would be from that spot. Sum those together to get a player's xG for the season, or team's xG for a game. If a player is short of that, it means they're having bad shooting luck, ran into a hot goaltender, or their shooting skill is inferior to others. Conversely, a player with higher xG than actual goals scored is a highly-skilled shooter, or has been just getting lucky and it will even out.
“People can cling to an old way of thinking, categorizing teams as this or that, or conferences as this or that. Or they can adjust to the new world.” - Curt Cignetti after winning the national title with Indiana
From CHN the expected vs. actual results by game with CHN's methodology quoted below.
The Gophers have surpassed the expected 13 times so far, their opponents 12 times.
In 6 of Minnesota's losses their OPP under-performed to the expected.
Make of it what you will.
xG Expected goals. This data is not as robust or accurate as, say, on the NHL level. But we do have access to decent shot location data, that enables us to calculate a basic xG. We take a 3-year rolling average of the shooting percentage from each each of six "areas" within the attacking zone. Then we take the amount of the player's shots from that location, and calculate what their xG would be from that spot. Sum those together to get a player's xG for the season, or team's xG for a game. If a player is short of that, it means they're having bad shooting luck, ran into a hot goaltender, or their shooting skill is inferior to others. Conversely, a player with higher xG than actual goals scored is a highly-skilled shooter, or has been just getting lucky and it will even out.
should be 7-20 by xG on the year for whoever cares to not have to total it
My guess is someone like Ziemer (and Snuggy in the past) can definitely exceed the expected goals with his shooting talent and maybe Mooney can do that consistently as well. Wouldn’t be surprised if the times where our opponent exceeded it happened more often when Airey played.
Also based on that explanation that’s cited maybe they don’t have shot type factored in like the NHL does? eg: Knowing whether a shot is a one timer or tip would make it more accurate.
My guess is someone like Ziemer (and Snuggy in the past) can definitely exceed the expected goals with his shooting talent and maybe Mooney can do that consistently as well. Wouldn’t be surprised if the times where our opponent exceeded it happened more often when Airey played.
Also based on that explanation that’s cited maybe they don’t have shot type factored in like the NHL does? eg: Knowing whether a shot is a one timer or tip would make it more accurate.
appears they do not, nor time from prior shot, or additional zones (most I believe have 10, not 6). seems nice to have but probably not going to be super accurate.
That said, the Corsi and Fenwick look ungodly bad this year.
My guess is someone like Ziemer (and Snuggy in the past) can definitely exceed the expected goals with his shooting talent and maybe Mooney can do that consistently as well. Wouldn’t be surprised if the times where our opponent exceeded it happened more often when Airey played.
Also based on that explanation that’s cited maybe they don’t have shot type factored in like the NHL does? eg: Knowing whether a shot is a one timer or tip would make it more accurate.
appears they do not, nor time from prior shot, or additional zones (most I believe have 10, not 6). seems nice to have but probably not going to be super accurate.
That said, the Corsi and Fenwick look ungodly bad this year.
Yeah you're definitely not wrong about the last part lol, on the flip side I think Luca is the best goalie we've had since Wilcox and that is definitely helping the Gophers beat the xG against projections.
I’m not so sure. Laffer won a Richter, and Close finished top-5 all time in nearly all statistical categories for Gopher goalies. I don’t know offhand how many years of eligibility LDP has left, but I’d certainly love to see what kind of numbers he could put up on a strong Gophers team.
For me when it comes to roster construction, goaltending is kinda whatever once you clear the “good-sometimes-great enough” threshold
I’m not so sure. Laffer won a Richter, and Close finished top-5 all time in nearly all statistical categories for Gopher goalies. I don’t know offhand how many years of eligibility LDP has left, but I’d certainly love to see what kind of numbers he could put up on a strong Gophers team.
For me when it comes to roster construction, goaltending is kinda whatever once you clear the “good-sometimes-great enough” threshold
personally I think if you put LDP on closes teams we win a natty and make another ff. LDP seems to have a lot more of that “big game” goalie in him imo. Loved Closer and sure he should be listed amidst some of our better goalies, but he also had some of the easiest jobs our goalies have ever had
I’m not so sure. Laffer won a Richter, and Close finished top-5 all time in nearly all statistical categories for Gopher goalies. I don’t know offhand how many years of eligibility LDP has left, but I’d certainly love to see what kind of numbers he could put up on a strong Gophers team.
For me when it comes to roster construction, goaltending is kinda whatever once you clear the “good-sometimes-great enough” threshold
Close was good but he benefited greatly from having the best group of D this team has ever seen (at least since Don's first years). Laffer was fine, he had one really good year but that was about it.
Close was good but he benefited greatly from having the best group of D this team has ever seen
This is overly reductive, Closer also did great in 2023-24 after Faber/Johnson/LaCombe moved on and stole us a few series that year. Like for example when he shut out PSU for 120min straight, 3-0 and 3-0 without the 2023 guys on D, that was an impeccable performance even if PSU was down that year. I guess in hindsight Closer maybe didn’t elevate his game as much as we’d like when the stakes were highest, but to do what he did given the role he was brought in for originally, is a massive feat
I always thought you knew what you were getting with Close every night, he hardly ever won you the game, and he also hardly ever lost you the game. Luca has the ability to go out and win a game for you. He also has the ability to be 5 feet out of the crease for an easy goal that can lose you the game. Haha
I always thought you knew what you were getting with Close every night, he hardly ever won you the game, and he also hardly ever lost you the game. Luca has the ability to go out and win a game for you. He also has the ability to be 5 feet out of the crease for an easy goal that can lose you the game. Haha
that goal he gave up to Lee against MSU hurt my soul a bit
I do wonder how good Barto could’ve been for us. Seems to be doing well at Tech rn. That Michigan sweep and garbage time @ PSU while leading 7-1 was the last we ever saw of him in net for the Gophs
Good interview with Luca on last Saturday’s pregame. I don’t know if I’ve heard a goalie talk more about his craft and working on certain areas of it in practice to improve himself more than this guy. Maybe like a lot of goalies I don’t know, but he definitely takes a lot of pride in his work and he’s locked into this season 100%.
“Good pace, a lot of north and south, or it could be east and west, I’m not sure but either way…” Wooger
Pohlad baseball ⚾️ it’s not arrogance, we really are “that good” #”Hey Siri, play “faithfully” by Journey max volume”
Good interview with Luca on last Saturday’s pregame. I don’t know if I’ve heard a goalie talk more about his craft and working on certain areas of it in practice to improve himself more than this guy. Maybe like a lot of goalies I don’t know, but he definitely takes a lot of pride in his work and he’s locked into this season 100%.
He is in school for a Aerospace Engineering degree
@gopher6 Yep, glad you mentioned that. All around impressive gopher student athlete.
“Good pace, a lot of north and south, or it could be east and west, I’m not sure but either way…” Wooger
Pohlad baseball ⚾️ it’s not arrogance, we really are “that good” #”Hey Siri, play “faithfully” by Journey max volume”
An email came out today for renewing next seasons tickets (the U wants your money now and this season isn’t even over…probably need it to entice players with with NIL 😂)
Anywho, they are finally offering the big ten package too. Just FYI they are NOT holding your seats as an STH (🤬) so go grab them if you want them. Right now just STH access til the 18th.
I’ve heard that they are expanding the student section for the tourney so those adjacent for sure have to select other seats. $56 a pop.
Close was good but he benefited greatly from having the best group of D this team has ever seen
This is overly reductive, Closer also did great in 2023-24 after Faber/Johnson/LaCombe moved on and stole us a few series that year. Like for example when he shut out PSU for 120min straight, 3-0 and 3-0 without the 2023 guys on D, that was an impeccable performance even if PSU was down that year. I guess in hindsight Closer maybe didn’t elevate his game as much as we’d like when the stakes were highest, but to do what he did given the role he was brought in for originally, is a massive feat
He was good but it just never seemed like he was gonna out perform elite goalies in big games. The Michigan series come to mind as well as the BU game.
“Good pace, a lot of north and south, or it could be east and west, I’m not sure but either way…” Wooger
Pohlad baseball ⚾️ it’s not arrogance, we really are “that good” #”Hey Siri, play “faithfully” by Journey max volume”
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24131129/gallery_image.JPG "Hey_Sioux_Suck")
