5 year 18 mil offer sheet by the flyers for carlsson.
well kk will no longer be the highest paid player. Id let him go at that price if im the ducks
Anaheim absolutely has to match that. Carlsson is trending towards being a Barkov, Kopitar level player.
I think the problem is the phrase trending towards and that he then becomes a UFA. It’s estimated at like a 5mil AAV overpay with the market and it fucks them for signing their young core young forward by resetting the market.
it’s a super good move from Philly. Was stupid of verbeek to let it get here as he probably could’ve signed him mid year for 15 and longer term.
if they agree to the deal, gauthiers deal also jumps up significantly
I get where you’re coming from and guess it kind of depends on what you think the market is going to do (bedard 20? Celebrini 21-22? Fantilli?; lots of young guys who are about to get much bigger first post rookie deals than before now in that theoretical world)
Frantically studying the CBA rn to figure out if a harebrained scheme I just cooked up would even be legal.
Imagine:
(1) Anaheim doesn't match;
(2) Philly then flips Carlsson right back to Anaheim, but with 25% of his salary retained...
(3) for like, 6 firsts (the 4 Philly picks + 2 of Anaheim's)
feel like that's the only way that everyone involved here can wind down their own risk. But if there's some restriction on trading or retaining salary w/ an offer sheeted player then there goes my idea.
5 year 18 mil offer sheet by the flyers for carlsson.
well kk will no longer be the highest paid player. Id let him go at that price if im the ducks
Anaheim absolutely has to match that. Carlsson is trending towards being a Barkov, Kopitar level player.
I think the problem is the phrase trending towards and that he then becomes a UFA. It’s estimated at like a 5mil AAV overpay with the market and it fucks them for signing their young core young forward by resetting the market.
it’s a super good move from Philly. Was stupid of verbeek to let it get here as he probably could’ve signed him mid year for 15 and longer term.
if they agree to the deal, gauthiers deal also jumps up significantly
I get where you’re coming from and guess it kind of depends on what you think the market is going to do (bedard 20? Celebrini 21-22? Fantilli?; lots of young guys who are about to get much bigger first post rookie deals than before now in that theoretical world)
most of what you said here happens regardless of what Anaheim decides to do. Their decision is pretty simple, is it better to have an overpaid Carlsson, or 4 future 1st round picks. I personally don't see it as a difficult decision at all.
Very similar to the Kaprizov negotiation, IMO. Putting yourself in a spot where either decision is a poor choice, really is a bad look for a GM
Frantically studying the CBA rn to figure out if a harebrained scheme I just cooked up would even be legal.
Imagine:
(1) Anaheim doesn't match;
(2) Philly then flips Carlsson right back to Anaheim, but with 25% of his salary retained...
(3) for like, 6 firsts (the 4 Philly picks + 2 of Anaheim's)
feel like that's the only way that everyone involved here can wind down their own risk. But if there's some restriction on trading or retaining salary w/ an offer sheeted player then there goes my idea.
You think Philadelphia would be ok paying over $20M for a couple of draft picks? Not to mentioning carrying over $4M if dead cap for 5 years?
5 year 18 mil offer sheet by the flyers for carlsson.
well kk will no longer be the highest paid player. Id let him go at that price if im the ducks
Anaheim absolutely has to match that. Carlsson is trending towards being a Barkov, Kopitar level player.
I think the problem is the phrase trending towards and that he then becomes a UFA. It’s estimated at like a 5mil AAV overpay with the market and it fucks them for signing their young core young forward by resetting the market.
it’s a super good move from Philly. Was stupid of verbeek to let it get here as he probably could’ve signed him mid year for 15 and longer term.
if they agree to the deal, gauthiers deal also jumps up significantly
I get where you’re coming from and guess it kind of depends on what you think the market is going to do (bedard 20? Celebrini 21-22? Fantilli?; lots of young guys who are about to get much bigger first post rookie deals than before now in that theoretical world)
most of what you said here happens regardless of what Anaheim decides to do. Their decision is pretty simple, is it better to have an overpaid Carlsson, or 4 future 1st round picks. I personally don't see it as a difficult decision at all.
Very similar to the Kaprizov negotiation, IMO. Putting yourself in a spot where either decision is a poor choice, really is a bad look for a GM
is a fair opinion, though one can argue as a gm you say that isn’t the market, that’s what someone overpaid for as a one off, same as what happened with KKs contract being widely discrepant for the year. Helps them negotiate now but yeah inevitably the salaries will go up. Just a matter of when and when it hits your team
Frantically studying the CBA rn to figure out if a harebrained scheme I just cooked up would even be legal.
Imagine:
(1) Anaheim doesn't match;
(2) Philly then flips Carlsson right back to Anaheim, but with 25% of his salary retained...
(3) for like, 6 firsts (the 4 Philly picks + 2 of Anaheim's)
feel like that's the only way that everyone involved here can wind down their own risk. But if there's some restriction on trading or retaining salary w/ an offer sheeted player then there goes my idea.
You think Philadelphia would be ok paying over $20M for a couple of draft picks? Not to mentioning carrying over $4M if dead cap for 5 years?
Comcast reported $123.7 billion in revenues for 2025, so $20M over 5 years is literal pocket change. They also probably give the Flyers' front office lots of discretion to make whatever hockey decisions w/o too much bean-counting.
Also, 6 first round picks gives you a very high likelihood (not guaranteed, but high) of picking at least 1 decent player who is gonna be worth more than $4M x 5 someday.
Furthermore, the cap is going up by $10M/year for like the next 5 years anyways. Even now / over the last few seasons, 2 firsts to take on a $4M cap dump is not really an absurd trade; if anything that is pretty generous to the Flyers.
Lastly, it would also help relieve some of the upward market pressure on RFA salaries more broadly. As of now, this offer sheet jacks up the market rates for all the other marquee RFAs (e.g. Bedard, Robertson, whoever w/ the Flyers is coming up for renewal soon); by walking it back in this manner, the GMs get to be like "see? $18M was always absurd, you can't use it in your negotiations with me"
Frantically studying the CBA rn to figure out if a harebrained scheme I just cooked up would even be legal.
Imagine:
(1) Anaheim doesn't match;
(2) Philly then flips Carlsson right back to Anaheim, but with 25% of his salary retained...
(3) for like, 6 firsts (the 4 Philly picks + 2 of Anaheim's)
feel like that's the only way that everyone involved here can wind down their own risk. But if there's some restriction on trading or retaining salary w/ an offer sheeted player then there goes my idea.
You think Philadelphia would be ok paying over $20M for a couple of draft picks? Not to mentioning carrying over $4M if dead cap for 5 years?
Comcast reported $123.7 billion in revenues for 2025, so $20M over 5 years is literal pocket change. They also probably give the Flyers' front office lots of discretion to make whatever hockey decisions w/o too much bean-counting.
Furthermore, 6 first round picks gives you a very high likelihood (not guaranteed, but high) of picking at least 1 decent player who is gonna be worth more than $4M x 5 someday.
Lastly, the cap is going up by $10M/year for like the next 5 years anyways. Even now / over the last few seasons, 2 firsts to take on a $4M cap dump is not really an absurd trade; if anything that is pretty generous to the Flyers
4 of those picks are the ones Philadelphia would have to give to Anaheim for the offersheet.
Frantically studying the CBA rn to figure out if a harebrained scheme I just cooked up would even be legal.
Imagine:
(1) Anaheim doesn't match;
(2) Philly then flips Carlsson right back to Anaheim, but with 25% of his salary retained...
(3) for like, 6 firsts (the 4 Philly picks + 2 of Anaheim's)
feel like that's the only way that everyone involved here can wind down their own risk. But if there's some restriction on trading or retaining salary w/ an offer sheeted player then there goes my idea.
You think Philadelphia would be ok paying over $20M for a couple of draft picks? Not to mentioning carrying over $4M if dead cap for 5 years?
Comcast reported $123.7 billion in revenues for 2025, so $20M over 5 years is literal pocket change. They also probably give the Flyers' front office lots of discretion to make whatever hockey decisions w/o too much bean-counting.
Furthermore, 6 first round picks gives you a very high likelihood (not guaranteed, but high) of picking at least 1 decent player who is gonna be worth more than $4M x 5 someday.
Lastly, the cap is going up by $10M/year for like the next 5 years anyways. Even now / over the last few seasons, 2 firsts to take on a $4M cap dump is not really an absurd trade; if anything that is pretty generous to the Flyers
4 of those picks are the ones Philadelphia would have to give to Anaheim for the offersheet.
yes I'm aware. read my original proposal again. Anaheim declines to match so they get Philly's 4 picks. They trade those 4 + 2 (or however many) of their own firsts back to Philly for Carlsson back at reduced/retained salary. So 6 picks and 1 player "got exchanged", but only 2 firsts and $4M x 5 in cap hit actually changed hands.
It doesn't even matter; turns out, you can't trade a player acquired via offer sheet for 1 year.
Frantically studying the CBA rn to figure out if a harebrained scheme I just cooked up would even be legal.
Imagine:
(1) Anaheim doesn't match;
(2) Philly then flips Carlsson right back to Anaheim, but with 25% of his salary retained...
(3) for like, 6 firsts (the 4 Philly picks + 2 of Anaheim's)
feel like that's the only way that everyone involved here can wind down their own risk. But if there's some restriction on trading or retaining salary w/ an offer sheeted player then there goes my idea.
You think Philadelphia would be ok paying over $20M for a couple of draft picks? Not to mentioning carrying over $4M if dead cap for 5 years?
Comcast reported $123.7 billion in revenues for 2025, so $20M over 5 years is literal pocket change. They also probably give the Flyers' front office lots of discretion to make whatever hockey decisions w/o too much bean-counting.
Furthermore, 6 first round picks gives you a very high likelihood (not guaranteed, but high) of picking at least 1 decent player who is gonna be worth more than $4M x 5 someday.
Lastly, the cap is going up by $10M/year for like the next 5 years anyways. Even now / over the last few seasons, 2 firsts to take on a $4M cap dump is not really an absurd trade; if anything that is pretty generous to the Flyers
4 of those picks are the ones Philadelphia would have to give to Anaheim for the offersheet.
yes I'm aware. read my original proposal again. Anaheim declines to match so they get Philly's 4 picks. They trade those 4 + 2 (or however many) of their own firsts back to Philly for Carlsson back at reduced/retained salary. So 6 picks and 1 player "got exchanged", but only 2 firsts and $4M x 5 in cap hit actually changed hands.
It doesn't even matter; turns out, you can't trade a player acquired via offer sheet for 1 year.
you're still paying $22.5M in actual money for 2 draft picks. It doesn't make any sense
A player signed via an offersheet can be traded. If you retain a player by matching an offersheet, you cannot trade him for 1 calendar year.
Came across this excellent in-depth analysis of Adam Fox's game. Whenever he's on the ice, the Rangers are a great team. Every minute he's not, the Rangers are terrible by every single measure.
Found it amusing that so many NHL-watchers commenting on this piece still haven't figured out just how valuable an elite 2-way defender is. As a lifelong Gopher fan, it was always obvious to me that building around elite puck-moving D is a great blueprint for winning championships.
would imagine can cut both ways. Larkin and Stevie clearly did not see eye to eye, so Stevie being gone allows Larkin to walk things back and be part of getting to the post-season if he wants that out, particularly if he likes what the new GM says about their direction and that it's an all in move, not a rebuild
On the flip, new GM looking to burn it down and build around Seider/Raymond may be fine taking what he can get for Larkin and leaning into the rebuild. Would surprise me a little if they go the route of "burn down" given where we're at in FA and post-draft and how the contracts sit, but they very well may lean into that mantra at the deadline as they would have some super enticing trade chips on 1 year deals (Debrincat, Copp, Faulk) in addition to Larkin to try build up a bunch of assets to fully launch the rebuild around Raymond, Seider and their young guys who are all in their early to mid 20s
I would be really surprised if Larkin were to go back on his trade request. Getting rid of Yzerman gives the Wings a chance to start getting better in the future, but the team is still currently awful. Don't think Larkin would want to wait a couple more years to see if anything happens
I would be really surprised if Larkin were to go back on his trade request. Getting rid of Yzerman gives the Wings a chance to start getting better in the future, but the team is still currently awful. Don't think Larkin would want to wait a couple more years to see if anything happens
they're not awful. they're also not good. They were in playoff position through the Olympic break and then flatlined (part of why people in Detroit really didn't appreciate Larkin's celebration tour). Similar to the last couple years, its coincided directly with Larkin's production. Agree with you they kind of need to lean in one way or the other rather than this tweener purgatory Yzerman put them in
Personally, as said before, I'd love it if they'd get Larkin to open up offer areas a bit, or if they're cool with taking futures from someone that has assets that are a little closer to use. Part of what makes MN a challenging partner unless you love Yurov or have high hopes for Stramel or like some of the guys down the way (Ritchie, Benak) as their 1sts will all be late as the Wild are going to be very, very good for the next 3-4 years minimum regardless of if they get Larkin or not.
The wings have a pretty good prospect pool right now (joy of missing the playoffs seemingly forever). I think that was Larkin's point is they didn't use enough of it to try get over the hump in trading. Would be interesting to see if a new GM is willing to push in on Gauthier, Knies or Werenski (I imagine Columbus even with him saying he's in on staying would take that call)
I don't see a way that Larkin stays with the team, would be hard for the rest of the team to trust someone who publicly said he wants out. Also, imagine Larkin returns and 2 years down the road they are no closer to making the playoffs, then what? Ask for a trade again? We all know how that would go.
I found this on ESPN today the NHL Another innovation in the schedule is an increase in Monday afternoon games. Nearly two dozen Monday matinees will double as primetime games in European markets.
Back in 1999-2000 season the Pittsburgh Penguins hired Herb Brooks mid season as head coach. After the season their general manager Craig Patrick had to inform Herb that he was being fired. Just think how difficult that would of been?
To be fair the Thrashers owners were literally battling in court (over ownership stake in the Hawks I think?) and neglecting the team completely for pretty much its entirety. Not saying it's the best option or anything but it's not like it couldn't possibly work under more competent owners, teams like Carolina and Florida are thriving and they aren't exactly hockey hotbeds.
Canadians will watch the NHL no matter what. Atlanta metro area offers them several million totally new customers who don't already know or watch hockey (just like Phoenix, Houston etc.)
Plus the US dollar is far stronger than $CAD, and US wages are much higher in real terms. So 1 American fan is "worth" quite a bit more than 1 Canadian fan, in a strictly business sense.
To be fair the Thrashers owners were literally battling in court (over ownership stake in the Hawks I think?) and neglecting the team completely for pretty much its entirety. Not saying it's the best option or anything but it's not like it couldn't possibly work under more competent owners, teams like Carolina and Florida are thriving and they aren't exactly hockey hotbeds.
the only thing stopping an NHL team succeeding in ATL is poor ownership. I lived in Tampa when the Lightning won the cup. It was already growing before they won the Cup in 2003. Once ATL sees today’s NHL they’re gonna love it. It won’t fail.
To be fair the Thrashers owners were literally battling in court (over ownership stake in the Hawks I think?) and neglecting the team completely for pretty much its entirety. Not saying it's the best option or anything but it's not like it couldn't possibly work under more competent owners, teams like Carolina and Florida are thriving and they aren't exactly hockey hotbeds.
the only thing stopping an NHL team succeeding in ATL is poor ownership. I lived in Tampa when the Lightning won the cup. It was already growing before they won the Cup in 2003. Once ATL sees today’s NHL they’re gonna love it. It won’t fail.
Southern fanbases love their NHL franchises, but only when their teams are winning a lot. Those fans disappear as soon as their team is having a down year, misses the playoffs etc.
More importantly, none of those southern fans seem to love hockey enough to produce hockey players at scale.
Yeah there's like a dozen pro and college players who grew up in AZ or FL. Most of their dads played in the NHL / AHL. All while Minnesota, MI, IL, NY, etc. still blow every southern state out of the water in youth participation rates, and in raw numbers (despite MN's relatively small population), and in pro development.
Putting your kid in youth hockey reflects a far greater investment in the sport than just watching your NHL team win a bunch of Cups with Gary's help.
And while Chicago fans are fairweather too (ever since the Hawks dynasty ended) I have found the average Chicagoan to be vastly more knowledgeable about hockey basics, compared to Southerners.
To be fair the Thrashers owners were literally battling in court (over ownership stake in the Hawks I think?) and neglecting the team completely for pretty much its entirety. Not saying it's the best option or anything but it's not like it couldn't possibly work under more competent owners, teams like Carolina and Florida are thriving and they aren't exactly hockey hotbeds.
the only thing stopping an NHL team succeeding in ATL is poor ownership. I lived in Tampa when the Lightning won the cup. It was already growing before they won the Cup in 2003. Once ATL sees today’s NHL they’re gonna love it. It won’t fail.
Southern fanbases love their NHL franchises, but only when their teams are winning a lot. Those fans disappear as soon as their team is having a down year, misses the playoffs etc.
More importantly, none of those southern fans seem to love hockey enough to produce hockey players at scale.
Yeah there's like a dozen pro and college players who grew up in AZ or FL. Most of their dads played in the NHL / AHL. All while Minnesota, MI, IL, NY, etc. still blow every southern state out of the water in youth participation rates, and in raw numbers (despite MN's relatively small population), and in pro development.
Putting your kid in youth hockey reflects a far greater investment in the sport than just watching your NHL team win a bunch of Cups with Gary's help.
And while Chicago fans are fairweather too (ever since the Hawks dynasty ended) I have found the average Chicagoan to be vastly more knowledgeable about hockey basics, compared to Southerners.
I think you’re kind of missing the point if you think the NHL is selecting most “deserving” or knowledgeable fan bases or that that’s in even the top 50 on their list. There are maybe like 5-7 fanbases who show up even when they’re losing and most of them are Canadian.
Austin has nothing for pro sports. Nor does the south have college hockey. Add in the other the ahl and jr hockey teams pull well and they have a shit ton of young professionals there looking for some way to blow money, seek status, etc., and Austin or Houston make perfect sense from that landscape or the nhl.
You are in Atlanta and it’s all about when they negotiate their next tv deal and they can say look at these extra markets we’ve tapped into and how many more viewers you can tap espn/tnt/etc.
gamedays actually are not as big a deal now compared with TV money. You’re only seating 15-20k in a hockey rink and there are more than enough fans to come in provided you don’t suck every single year right off the bat and the nhl has changed the drafting rules for expansion teams to make them competitive from the jump.
as a fan of college hockey, growing the game in the south is good for the health of the sport as a whole and the future of the college game too. Interestingly Texas hockey is now 13th in youth hockey numbers in the country with most of that ground being made since the stars got there
I mean I get it, Dallas fans suck and I was thrilled we sent them packing. Doesn’t mean they won’t put butts in seats down south from a business practicality standpoint
I think you’re kind of missing the point if you think the NHL is selecting most “deserving” or knowledgeable fan bases or that that’s in even the top 50 on their list.
I know they're not. I'm just whining and moaning about how life isn't fair.
Atlanta has had 2 teams and both teams fell apart due to terrible ownership management I do not think they will get a 3rd team
I don't know if the NHL really cares as far as city as I think they're looking at Seattle, Utah and Vegas and seen that they've done a way better job making the teams competitive right away which.
Now that also depends on the ownership groups who step up and bid.
I'm suspecting Austin is their top target given there's no big 4 team there and it's a top 30 metro area in the country and they have this draw thinking the south is where expansion will be best. Houston would be the other. Atlanta is probably further down the list, but i'm sure they're looking at the big ass hole in the SE and thinking they could capitalize on the market now if they make the team better
Plus the US dollar is far stronger than $CAD, and US wages are much higher in real terms. So 1 American fan is "worth" quite a bit more than 1 Canadian fan, in a strictly business sense.
Plus the US dollar is far stronger than $CAD, and US wages are much higher in real terms. So 1 American fan is "worth" quite a bit more than 1 Canadian fan, in a strictly business sense.
FYP
i think moreso its that all canadians are already hockey fans if they're going to be. i don't think putting a team in Quebec City is going to change much when you consider QC is about 800k and you're comparing to Houston (8m), Austin (2.6), or Atl (6.5). You need far less catchment percentagewise to make the dollars drastically in favor of the US city especially when so many in Canada already have teams anyway
Breakdown of how many nationally televised games there are for each team this year. Boston and Pittsburgh lead the pack with 20 each. Flyers with 19, Rangers with 18, Wild/Red Wings/Blackhawks and Caps with 17. (EDIT: corrected typo)
Breakdown of how many nationally televised games there are for each team this year. Boston and Pittsburgh lead the pack with 30 each. Flyers with 19, Rangers with 18, Wild/Red Wings/Blackhawks and Caps with 17.
I think you meant 20, which makes the spread with MN at 17 not seem so far off.
As to the really low ones, most are Canadian, so, they're very likely to be on national coverage in Canada. Columbus and Nashville at 2/3 seems a bit weird. Guessing Seattle and Anaheim are only at 7 due to time zones.
