What do we think about Burnevik? Do we get him for two years or does he sign after one? Skating has always held him back.
Hoping Matt Cullen can impart some wisdom on improving the teams faceoffs in general -- seemingly, hope was our best option the past few years (jaxson nelson aside).
I spend an unhealthy amount of time looking at old box scores & gm-x-gm stats, so I noticed a while ago that Cooley was actually really good at winning faceoffs.
Two snapshots:
(1) 2023 B1G title game - won 14 of 19 (73.6%)
(2) Final reg-season game vs. OSU - won 7 of 11 (63.6%)
Huglen over 4 years was a pretty consistent 50-53% faceoff guy too.
I think our perception of the team's faceoff woes is a bit skewed due to (a) recency bias, and (b) both Ollie Moore and Erik Pahlsson consistently got wrecked on their faceoffs
(c) still scarred from the quinny game (i know i should move on) where we got shorted 34-23
Good info --- Cooley at the U seems very distant at this point.
With how the 3rd period went, I kinda doubt that much changes even if we had gone 28-27, or even 57-0 in the dot
What do we think about Burnevik? Do we get him for two years or does he sign after one? Skating has always held him back.
Dodging your question a bit, but I think for the next few years NHL teams generally won't be rushing to sign their NCAA draft picks. Salary cap skyrocketing upward means there's less need for youngsters on cheap ELCs
Line predictions
Mooney-Moe-Ziemer
Moore-W. Cullen-Burnevik
Hendrickson-Humphreys-Kvasnicka
Ludtke-Townsend-Pritchard
Maybe they do end up loading up the top line but I actually think Moe fits in well with Ziemer and Mooney and adds some size to the top line. I also think Mooney and Cullen are the best playmakers and Ziemer and Burnevik are the best goal scorers so I’d separate them. Cullen would also get easier match ups and less pressure to learn center on the second line. Don’t think ludtke will see top 9 or pp time next year, he just simply can’t skate or keep up with the pace of play and is a line killer.
PP1
Mooney-Ziemer-Cullen-Moe-Murr
PP2
kvasnicka-Burnevik- Humphreys-Moore-smith
@j22 did you watch the 2023 national title game? Faceoffs matter.
Line predictions
Mooney-Moe-Ziemer
Moore-W. Cullen-Burnevik
Hendrickson-Humphreys-Kvasnicka
Ludtke-Townsend-Pritchard
Maybe they do end up loading up the top line but I actually think Moe fits in well with Ziemer and Mooney and adds some size to the top line. I also think Mooney and Cullen are the best playmakers and Ziemer and Burnevik are the best goal scorers so I’d separate them. Cullen would also get easier match ups and less pressure to learn center on the second line. Don’t think ludtke will see top 9 or pp time next year, he just simply can’t skate or keep up with the pace of play and is a line killer.
PP1
Mooney-Ziemer-Cullen-Moe-Murr
PP2
kvasnicka-Burnevik- Humphreys-Moore-smith
Spreading out your top scorers on 2-3 lines vs. stacking 1 line can go either way, there's not really clear-cut evidence that one approach is always better than the other.
Burnevik will be on PP1 to start (instead of Moe), he's got more experience and more ability to slot in a few different spots in the setup.
also, I bet we'll see 2 Ds on a single PP unit fairly often. Some combo of Murr, Smith, Hendricks
@maroon_and_gold he's a really good shooter, not quite Snuggerud level but still quite high. It is hard to score 20 goals in the NCHC. Good puck control player and passes well. He will fight for pucks but is not a power forward. Wouldn't call him soft though the skating is the biggest issue it really hurts him on transition defense. Needs to be with guys who skate well to cover. Overall he's probably worthy of a top 6 forward. If paired with a good center (which I don't think we have) I think he could score 40 points. Probably the third best forward on the team after Ziemer and Mooney.
I did. And faceoffs weren't nearly as important in that game as the decision to stop forechecking, or trying to play any sort of offense at all.@j22 did you watch the 2023 national title game? Faceoffs matter.
The difference between most players who are considered good at faceoffs and the players who are considered bad at them, is so minimal that it's hardly worth talking about. There are guys on each end of that spectrum who can be difference makers good or bad, but they are certainly not the norm.
Yeah I think that game broke a lot of peoples' brains lol. Losing that one faceoff cleanly certainly didn't help but I tend to agree that the team deciding not to play hockey after 30 minutes was the far bigger issue. I'm almost inclined to do the zone entry/exit tracking like I did years ago for that game just to see what the split looks like.
What do we think about Burnevik? Do we get him for two years or does he sign after one? Skating has always held him back.
Two years would be great, but it's most likely going to be one. If it's only one year, that probably means he's coming off a lights-out season.
20+ regular season wins or less?
This year’s preseason poll, the Gophers might not even crack the top 20. Personally, I’d much rather have them underrated than overrated. Preseason polls don't mean anything the Badgers were not in last years top 20 and made it all the way to the championship game.
I think for sure 20+ regular season wins and a return to the NCAA tourney this year.
A. Less than 20 wins
B. More than 20 wins
C. I don't see a loss on the schedule
20 wins would mean going slightly above .500 in the B1G and then winning like 6 OOC games. It's doable but they kinda need to sweep the bad B1G teams consistently or go 3-1 in their series vs PSU/WI. I don't think they're gonna do better than a split against either Michigan team if I had to guess, the conservative part of my projection for next year has us going 1-3 vs those teams.
The OOC has UAA who they absolutely have to sweep, if they split the NoDak, MNSU, Tech, Duluth series that's 20 wins.
I think that's a pretty good prediction for the win total, anything more or less than that really depends on how a team with a lot of new guys and a new coach starts the year during the OOC games which is why I mostly predicted splits. I do think this team is more talented than Motzko's first two teams but the B1G as a whole is also getting more talented as well.
20+ regular season wins or less?
This year’s preseason poll, the Gophers might not even crack the top 20. Personally, I’d much rather have them underrated than overrated. Preseason polls don't mean anything the Badgers were not in last years top 20 and made it all the way to the championship game.
I think for sure 20+ regular season wins and a return to the NCAA tourney this year.
A. Less than 20 wins
B. More than 20 wins
C. I don't see a loss on the schedule
On the first part, the Gophers will be ranked somewhere in the teens because its MN and the expectation of the transfer portal contributions
Counting the now lessened BTT? 34 games needing to be 20-14 and acknowledging our OOC schedule isn't easy leading me to guess we are shooting to be 6-4 OOC (or better obviously). If they get to 20, it will be a lock for the NCAA tourney (probably as a 2 seed). I don't think they're quite going to get there but I think that's a realistic target for this team to shoot for
A nine win improvement would be huge for the program and the thought of that large of an improvement makes me cringe just a little. Our opponents both in conference and out of conference aren't slouches but every team has it's night, last years squad lost to Long Island and beat the eventual national champs within the span of two weeks.
Call it maroon colored glasses or excitement of new blood but I think they can get those nine wins to get to 20 wins.
I am the official Iowa Hawkeye football fan of GPL!
@gopherfun83 Im going with B. The expectation is to compete for a title, so im disappointed your standards are so low. However I am not high on the Big 10 this year outside of the Michigan schools. I think Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn state are likely all worse than they were last year. Then Notre Dame is in the midst of a long rebuild. We can beat the bottom of the big 10 enough to get to 20. If our D core is healthy we likely have one of the best D cores in the country. We also have some really good wingers in Ziemer Mooney Burnevik and maybe one of Moore/hendrickson/Kvasnicka emerges. I think this team is terrible down the middle but will still have enough playmaking to make up for it against 70% of the schedule. Our goalie Luka isn’t great but he is above average and will actually have help in front of them. Overall you'd be nuts to pick this team to win less than 20 games unless their are injuries.
@g-manpuck a 9 win improvement wouldn't be satisfactory. 23 or 24 is expected minimum.
@g-manpuck a 9 win improvement wouldn't be satisfactory. 23 or 24 is expected minimum.
there are generally 2-3 teams who win 24 games in the B10 every year (someone has to lose the games given our H2H schedule and this is counting postseason). the number will stay less due to no longer having a BO3 in playoffs
26: MSU, Mich, WI (who had 24 due to the postseason games)
25: MSU, MN, OSU (won 3 BTT games)
24: MSU, WI (MN won 23 games this year and was a 2 seed and played in the BTT title game)
23: MN, MI
22: MN, MI, ND
Remember the question is regular season wins
@upnorthkid I'll go right at 20 then. I was counting BTT games forgot that it isn't a best of three anymore.
However I am not high on the Big 10 this year outside of the Michigan schools. I think Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn state are likely all worse than they were last year.
agreed, I think PSU in particular is going to really struggle next season. I know they kept Smith and have some other guys coming in but they lost so much of their veteran core. I think Gadowsky isn't yet good enough at managing the egos and personalities and play styles that come with getting the higher round draft picks.
2024: MN won 23 games this year and was a 2 seed and played in the BTT title game
no we didn't, Michigan knocked us out (2-1) in the semis after we swept PSU
However I am not high on the Big 10 this year outside of the Michigan schools. I think Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn state are likely all worse than they were last year.
agreed, I think PSU in particular is going to really struggle next season. I know they kept Smith and have some other guys coming in but they lost so much of their veteran core. I think Gadowsky isn't yet good enough at managing the egos and personalities and play styles that come with getting the higher round draft picks.
I think PSU will be fine and their usual state (ie 4th-5th). Their offense will certainly be down, but they have a pretty old back line. They seem like a team that'll be just over .500, helped by playing RMU, SH (1), Canisius, Army, Princeton (1) and Niagara in the non-con (lmao) as well as 1 vs QU and 1 vs UConn. Think they miss the postseason unless Jackson Smith hits a takeover phase (I don't see it and it would hilarious if Columbus ends up trading Werenski and then pushing him to sign)
@g-manpuck a 9 win improvement wouldn't be satisfactory. 23 or 24 is expected minimum.
Any enumerable amount of wins over what they did last season is the expectation. If the Gophers could just flip their conference record from 7-15 to 15-7 that would be awesome but I'm not going to put that much pressure on them.
I am the official Iowa Hawkeye football fan of GPL!
However I am not high on the Big 10 this year outside of the Michigan schools. I think Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn state are likely all worse than they were last year.
agreed, I think PSU in particular is going to really struggle next season. I know they kept Smith and have some other guys coming in but they lost so much of their veteran core. I think Gadowsky isn't yet good enough at managing the egos and personalities and play styles that come with getting the higher round draft picks.
I think PSU will be fine and their usual state (ie 4th-5th). Their offense will certainly be down, but they have a pretty old back line.
They seem like a team that'll be just over .500, helped by playing RMU, SH (1), Canisius, Army, Princeton (1) and Niagara in the non-con (lmao) as well as 1 vs QU and 1 vs UConn.
Think they miss the postseason unless Jackson Smith hits a takeover phase (I don't see it and it would hilarious if Columbus ends up trading Werenski and then pushing him to sign)
yeah i always forget how high our fanbase's own expectations are relative to the rest of college hockey. as we all just saw, the Gophers going .500ish (or worse) causes much wailing and gnashing.
Pegula should've donated to keep Mercyhurst men's hockey going, i'm sure PSU will miss those guaranteed OOC wins vs. a local-ish team. One less cupcake team for them to take 60 perimeter shots at
I think a reasonable expectation for the team is a 2/3 seed in the tournament this year. If they're a bubble team it's because they've underperformed to their abilities.
I think a reasonable expectation for the team is a 2/3 seed in the tournament this year. If they're a bubble team it's because they've underperformed to their abilities.
Minimum wins for 2/3 seeds was 21 in 2026, in 2025 UMASS got in as a 3 with 20 wins. Not a completely outrageous goal by any means but...
I think a reasonable expectation for the team is a 2/3 seed in the tournament this year. If they're a bubble team it's because they've underperformed to their abilities.
just of note on the 2/3 seed thing vs. bubble team
Wisco was a bubble team until they swept PSU the last week of the season and snuck in 1 point in the NPI (the distance between them and the last AL team was .83, the same distance to being a 2). Many 3s are bubble teams very late in the year and drop out late (see BC down the stretch who was well in until they finished 1-5).
If the Gophers win 20 games though, they should comfortably be in because of our NC schedule this year (assuming teams are as advertised). Wisco won 21 and was a bubbler because they played Lindenwood, AA, and Alaska as non-con series.
Think a 2 seed would be a very good regular season with where they're at. I think they'll be a bubble team come March (3/4 seed range) and be a team no one wants to draw as their 1st round matchup. Nothing wrong with a bubbler peaking at the right time in hockey
Not a completely outrageous goal by any means but...
That's 10 more wins from last year's team. Should be the minimum expected.
Think a 2 seed would be a very good regular season with where they're at.
I think a 2 seed is where I would expect them to end up, they have the talent to do so, it's all about engagement, something I think the team as a whole woefully lacked and can be attributed to last year's disaster as much as the lack of talent can.
Get them engaged and in the fight every night, they'll win plenty imo.
2 or 3 seed is what I’m expecting. Probably a top 10 team unless things go wrong 🤷♂️.
Not a completely outrageous goal by any means but...
That's 10 more wins from last year's team. Should be the minimum expected.
I think it's too early to make that call. Ludtke is their 5th or 6th highest returning scorer and many fans here don't expect him to get significant ice time. DiPasquo has to have better numbers although Strahl could push him for time? Their PP was impressive last year but the PK was abysmal - while the PK can only go up it's too early to claim the new staff will turn it into a strength. The NC SOS is also no slouch.
I think a reasonable expectation for the team is a 2/3 seed in the tournament this year. If they're a bubble team it's because they've underperformed to their abilities.
3 seed = on the bubble. As Casey Mittelstadt or tDon can attest to.
I think #3 or 4 overall seed (so, a #1 seed in regionals) is the ceiling and 6-10 overall range is most realistic. I'm super excited to see this D corps + Cullen and Kvasnicka in action.
Wisco won 21 and was a bubbler because they played Lindenwood, AA, and Alaska as non-con series.
we're playing UAA this year, and Tech often finishes roughly in the same NPI ballpark as Lindenwood did last year.
Maybe it's because I'm young so I don't really have the WCHA nostalgia, and I'm very risk averse, but I always get antsy scheduling those kinds of teams because (1) it's usually terrible hockey, and (2) they can totally nuke our tourney hopes if we have a single bad night or bad period.
Interested to see if there’s any noticeable change in play style between Larson and Motzko teams. From what I can recall from Larson’s better Cloud teams, they played a very similar style.
They play 24 conference games, not 22? That said 14-10 is already tough enough, 12-12 and 18 total wins is probably more likely but 20 is pretty doable with minimal overperformance beyond what I expect.@g-manpuck a 9 win improvement wouldn't be satisfactory. 23 or 24 is expected minimum.
Any enumerable amount of wins over what they did last season is the expectation. If the Gophers could just flip their conference record from 7-15 to 15-7 that would be awesome but I'm not going to put that much pressure on them.
edit: 2 "ties" I didn't account for, I get it now
Tarin Smith said in an interview that it is still “up in the air” whether he’ll be healthy to start the season or not. We can survive Tech fine but it would be nice to have him vs the Duluth, Nodak, Wisconsin part of the schedule.
Tarin Smith said in an interview that it is still “up in the air” whether he’ll be healthy to start the season or not. We can survive Tech fine but it would be nice to have him vs the Duluth, Nodak, Wisconsin part of the schedule.
Unfortunate, but not totally unexpected. Bigger concern is it takes him time to ramp up. Given his skills plus age he could hit the ground running if he is healthy come fall.
Luckily it’s a very veteran d core with a lot of games played. They should be able to handle it though not ideal starting the year with Begley skating any minutes
Interested to see if there’s any noticeable change in play style between Larson and Motzko teams. From what I can recall from Larson’s better Cloud teams, they played a very similar style.
This intrigues me more than anything. Last year when the skill wasn't there, it felt like there wasn't a system to help the players get out of situations. We relied on talent to make plays in the past instead of some sort of organization or at the least stricter organization. Larson was an assistant on those Duluth teams, so maybe he learned something about defensive structure? Will he fall into the trap of better talent means trusting the players more instead of coaching them harder?
Interested to see if there’s any noticeable change in play style between Larson and Motzko teams. From what I can recall from Larson’s better Cloud teams, they played a very similar style.
This intrigues me more than anything. Last year when the skill wasn't there, it felt like there wasn't a system to help the players get out of situations. We relied on talent to make plays in the past instead of some sort of organization or at the least stricter organization. Larson was an assistant on those Duluth teams, so maybe he learned something about defensive structure? Will he fall into the trap of better talent means trusting the players more instead of coaching them harder?
given the comments from players who had him as a coach at national competitions, I don’t think he’s going to stop coaching because the talent gets better
Interested to see if there’s any noticeable change in play style between Larson and Motzko teams. From what I can recall from Larson’s better Cloud teams, they played a very similar style.
This intrigues me more than anything. Last year when the skill wasn't there, it felt like there wasn't a system to help the players get out of situations. We relied on talent to make plays in the past instead of some sort of organization or at the least stricter organization. Larson was an assistant on those Duluth teams, so maybe he learned something about defensive structure? Will he fall into the trap of better talent means trusting the players more instead of coaching them harder?
I think style wise, we'll probably look a lot like SCSU's 2023 team (the one w/ Cruikshank, we beat them in Fargo to reach Tampa). Obviously it'd be a lot more fun to see us go full run & gun mode but if the talent up front isn't there, it's not there.
Btw, it's not really indicative of anything, but I vaguely recall how we stomped the Huskies in that preseason/exhibition game 2 years ago (2024-25). Our roster was stacked on paper and the game didn't mean anything but now I'm racking my brain trying to remember what I saw in that game. May or may not tell us something about what Larson does when faced with a talent gap, even though it was only a preseason exhibition
Luckily it’s a very veteran d core with a lot of games played. They should be able to handle it though not ideal starting the year with Begley skating any minutes
Begley shouldn't need to play even while Smith is out. Our top 6 D w/o Smith:
Whipple - Murr
Loftus - Hendricks
Lofgren - Rombach
really hope Begley doesn't have any dirt on Larson like he seems to have had w/ Bob; nothing else explains why Bob put him on the ice for so many game-critical situations last year
I’d guess they dress 7 dmen to start the year. Lofgren is still a freshman and Rombach has had his moments.
Luckily it’s a very veteran d core with a lot of games played. They should be able to handle it though not ideal starting the year with Begley skating any minutes
Begley shouldn't need to play even while Smith is out. Our top 6 D w/o Smith:
Whipple - Murr
Loftus - Hendricks
Lofgren - Rombach
really hope Begley doesn't have any dirt on Larson like he seems to have had w/ Bob; nothing else explains why Bob put him on the ice for so many game-critical situations last year
Gonna nitpick you just cause I’ve seen you post it more than once. It’s Henricks, no D.
https://twitter.com/GopherHockey/status/2073074292204458488
Looking down from my High Horse
Morality Police
Not very objective
Ziemer is a great leader. I have a ton of faith that he’s the right voice to right the ship in the locker room after last year’s fiasco.