🤣How about (From the storm prediction center's current Day 2 forecast. This is the kind of stuff I always check when watching for severe weather):
Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the increasingly moist warm sector, supporting aggressive diurnal destabilization especially on the southern fringe of lingering convection/cloud cover. Significantly strengthening mid-level winds and a diurnally persistent strong low-level jet will support initial supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes, including strong (EF2+) tornado potential. But a mixed/transitional mode is expected overall, as upscale growth occurs given the degree of forcing for ascent, with likely evolution into a well-organized/fast-moving QLCS capable of increasingly widespread/intense damaging winds and a continued QLCS-related tornado risk. This scenario currently appears to be most probable across southern/eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois and nearby far northern Missouri. The severe risk will persist into the Upper Great Lakes region and middle Mississippi Valley overnight.If the above was not composed by a bot, I would love to read their description of a recent dinner at The Lex. A friend of mine wrote a script decades ago to generate biz speak pronouncements from Upper Management to the employees. Maybe the script has been repurposed by the NWS. Grab a word from each bucket and slap together into a sentence.
Nope. These are written by humans. Just, really technical storm forecasting stuff.
It will keep raining on and off because I have bags of mulch that have been laying all over the yard since Friday night waiting for a dry 48 hours to be put down. 😂
I’m hoping for no rain on Friday (in the forecast). Painting the shed and having some yard work done.
Steve, could you repeat the part where you said all that stuff about the things?
The ascent should spread over the region, atop that from the front and surface heating, supporting the development of steep low/middle-level lapse rates. With surface dewpoints recovering into the upper 60s to around 70 F, a corridor of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE should develop over much of IA, with slightly weaker (but still favorable) values clipping parts of southern MN as well.
This 3+ inches of rain has oddly turned into hardly anything.
Somehow my weather underground app is saying we should expect 1.5" of rain from 5-7 pm. If that holds out it should be POURING.
From a severe storm reporting perspective, 1" of rain in an hour or less is, itself, a reportable condition, regardless of hail/wind/etc. 1.5" in 2 hours wouldn't qualify, but, that's pretty close, to say the least.This 3+ inches of rain has oddly turned into hardly anything.
Somehow my weather underground app is saying we should expect 1.5" of rain from 5-7 pm. If that holds out it should be POURING.
Wow.
https://twitter.com/bclemms/status/1793063922355826857
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Known storm chaser Reed Timmer caught video of a tornado taking out some wind turbines while chasing in Iowa yesterday. That tornado ended up being the tornado that hit Greenfield. These damn things keep getting closer and closer to my in-laws in central Iowa. They live only 30 miles away from Greenfield. We called them last night and they said that when the storm passed by them they caught a lot of wind but luckily no funnel clouds.
Iowa is just getting ripped this storm season.
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Known storm chaser Reed Timmer caught video of a tornado taking out some wind turbines while chasing in Iowa yesterday. That tornado ended up being the tornado that hit Greenfield. These damn things keep getting closer and closer to my in-laws in central Iowa. They live only 30 miles away from Greenfield. We called them last night and they said that when the storm passed by them they caught a lot of wind but luckily no funnel clouds.
Iowa is just getting ripped this storm season.
The photos out of Greenfield were unbelievable. Its easy to forget how dangerous and devastating tornadoes can be. I hope they can rebuild that town.
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It has happened before in Iowa in the town of Bradgate in 2004. A EF2 tornado took out 30 of 42 houses, according to Wiki anyway. I knew that over half of the town was leveled though. They rebuilt most everything that was destroyed. I would imagine in Greenfield, town of 2000 people, that they will rebuild.
I just read a story that they categorized the tornado in Greenfield as a EF3...yikes. So far this season Iowa has had the most tornadoes in the nation at 81, Texas is second with 74. This is the second EF3 tornado to hit a southwestern Iowa town and level most of it, remember Minden only about a month ago.
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So far this season Iowa has had the most tornadoes in the nation at 81, Texas is second with 74. This is the second EF3 tornado to hit a southwestern Iowa town and level most of it, remember Minden only about a month ago.
That’s especially amazing since you could drop Iowa in a corner of Texas and not really notice it.
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― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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4.5" here Sat-Mon. Fields are about 1/3 under water.
This is an awful start to summer. If it’s not raining, it’s been windy as heck. If it is calm, then the bugs come out to play.
Since I moved to TC in 1982, best Dec 21-Mar 21 EVER…followed by one of the worst Mar 22 - June 21…really BIZARRE turn of events!This is an awful start to summer. If it’s not raining, it’s been windy as heck. If it is calm, then the bugs come out to play.
4.5" here Sat-Mon. Fields are about 1/3 under water.
I'm looking at slightly less here, but the fields are in the same condition. The weather heads are saying up to 5 more inches of rain through the weekend.
I actually give a @#$* about the Twins
Looking down from my High Horse
Morality Police
Stayed in Grand Portage last night. Christ. I’ll have 30 miles of backwoods dirt roads to drive later. I have no idea what to expect.
@bertogliat be careful! There’s a road near Ely that’s completely washed out.
Dorothy: Who’s that?
Scarecrow: A man with an axe and a can of lube. I’ll ask if he wants to join us.
Whoa….Gooseberry is roaring!
https://twitter.com/akpix/status/1803431831838048631?s=46&t=UoTCikmOZyJ29kktoNzh-A
https://twitter.com/akpix/status/1803433238704062578
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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That is nuts...I know exactly where that spot is it is never like that!
Couple of pics of my fields. Expecting another 2 inches of rain today.
I actually give a @#$* about the Twins
Looking down from my High Horse
Morality Police
Oh man, that just stinks and has to be hard to see. I know there is no such thing as a "normal" weather year but geesh it would be nice to have something inside the somewhat normal parameters.
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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@greyeagle You are correct, I would take normal for a change. After 3 years of drought, now this. Fortunately, I guess this is why I have insurance. I can't imagine what it would look like if my land wasn't tiled.
I actually give a @#$* about the Twins
Looking down from my High Horse
Morality Police
The rain and moister was nice, but now it’s getting to be much.
I drove to our job site in David City, Nebraska yesterday and missed the rain that hit SD and Iowa. Drove back this morning and missed the rain that hit Mankato/SW Minnesota. All I can say is water water water everywhere. I saw 100 acre fields completely submerged in water. It’s not good. Mankato got 3-4 inches just this morning. I’m currently dealing with water in my basement as is most of Mankato. We don’t need the rain that is coming tonight.
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Whoa….Gooseberry is roaring!
https://twitter.com/akpix/status/1803431831838048631?s=46&t=UoTCikmOZyJ29kktoNzh-A
Minneopa getting in on the act, too.
Cannon enters the chat
My hometown of Spencer Iowa (NW corner) has had historic flooding, it’s a major disaster. North and South sides of town both, very rare. No water, no sewer, electricity out in large swaths of town. A curfew has been declared.
Dorothy: Who’s that?
Scarecrow: A man with an axe and a can of lube. I’ll ask if he wants to join us.
Down the road in Rock Valley they had to sound the tornado sirens at 2 a.m. in the morning on Saturday to alert people about the levee breech. The town ended up flooding nearly completely. Northwest Iowa, Southeast South Dakota, and Southwest Minnesota are just complete messes right now.
I wish I could find the graphic I saw this weekend showing the line of precipitation from south of Sioux Falls to Mankato that got between 15"-20" of rain from the 19th to the 22nd.
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Down the road in Rock Valley they had to sound the tornado sirens at 2 a.m. in the morning on Saturday to alert people about the levee breech. The town ended up flooding nearly completely. Northwest Iowa, Southeast South Dakota, and Southwest Minnesota are just complete messes right now.
I wish I could find the graphic I saw this weekend showing the line of precipitation from south of Sioux Falls to Mankato that got between 15"-20" of rain from the 19th to the 22nd.
This?
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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I saw that one but a different one that I saw had the totals to 9:30 Saturday morning.
Rapidan Dam near Mankato is having major issues this morning. Not a good situation.
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Rapidan Dam near Mankato is having major issues this morning. Not a good situation.
Yikes! That looks toast. Seems it could unleash a torrent of water downstream given that current.
My niece lives between Mankato & Mapleton and works in Mankato. Per her mandatory evacuations of parts of "lower" North Mankato are being announced....yikes.
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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@bertogliat be careful! There’s a road near Ely that’s completely washed out.
Update, we made it to our fishing resort. We had to twice traverse water flowing over the roads. But we were smart and got out of our cars to walk the overflow to make sure it wasn't too deep. Was a little sketchy (water came to the bottom of our doors), but we just got through. One of the overflows was caused by a beaver dam. When we came back through 5 days later, the beaver pond had dropped 4 feet after crews partially dismantled it. Amazing animals.
I saw that one but a different one that I saw had the totals to 9:30 Saturday morning.
Rapidan Dam near Mankato is having major issues this morning. Not a good situation.
Dams are a tricky science. They are always forecast several days to weeks in advance on opening and closing gates for outlet. One of my favorite places to go at my cabin is the Hungry Horse dam and reservoir. It’s one of the largest dams in the United States and has the largest glory hole I think in the world. I can drive up to the dam and reservoir or even drive down to the base of the dam and just sit and watch for hours. To me its amazing piece of work.
Saw we may be in for some more nasty weather with potential for some tornadoes tonight too. Not thrilled about it.
These storms keep landing on my kid's soccer game days. He's going to end the season this week with 3 games played if they get rained out again.
That said, we're not in a flood zone so all is good.
They said Saturday that the rainy/stormy spell was over. Now it's already back on tonight.
My niece lives between Mankato & Mapleton and works in Mankato. Per her mandatory evacuations of parts of "lower" North Mankato are being announced....yikes.
The Sherriff office has been on tv and said no evacuations have been declared…yet. The river is at 28 ft and the levees are designed for 39.5 ft so local emergency management officials have said that if/when the dam breaks a surge of 2 ft is expected. The Army Corps of Engineers and the NWS are working on more accurate models to determine the surge.
The break that started on the west side of the damn has increased in size so officials are hoping that has decreased the pressure on the dam.
Lower North Mankato is the one area of concern because of the Lower Judson Road isn’t behind a levee. Right now they are building an earth wall to cover that area. It is the intersection of Lookout Drive and Lee Boulevard.
I live in West Mankato and my neighborhood should be fine but I do worry about the city keeping the flooding out of the sewer system. I came home this morning to empty our basement just in case.
I pray that this doesn’t end in a catastrophic event.
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My niece lives between Mankato & Mapleton and works in Mankato. Per her mandatory evacuations of parts of "lower" North Mankato are being announced....yikes.
The Sherriff office has been on tv and said no evacuations have been declared…yet. The river is at 28 ft and the levees are designed for 39.5 ft so local emergency management officials have said that if/when the dam breaks a surge of 2 ft is expected. The Army Corps of Engineers and the NWS are working on more accurate models to determine the surge.
The break that started on the west side of the damn has increased in size so officials are hoping that has decreased the pressure on the dam.
Lower North Mankato is the one area of concern because of the Lower Judson Road isn’t behind a levee. Right now they are building an earth wall to cover that area. It is the intersection of Lookout Drive and Lee Boulevard.
I live in West Mankato and my neighborhood should be fine but I do worry about the city keeping the flooding out of the sewer system. I came home this morning to empty our basement just in case.
I pray that this doesn’t end in a catastrophic event.
I think she misunderstood the announcement, I saw a bit ago that all those who needed to be evacuated were notified.
Good luck....the uncertainty is killer.
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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For sure the uncertainty is what is messing with my mind. The truly unbelievable/believable situation right is all the chicken littles on social media. If you type in Rapidan Dam into Facebook it is unbelievable the amount of bad information. I mean seriously folks, just look up local government agencies for the proper information. It’s not rocket appliances.
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How could they say 2 foot surge is expected. The upriver side of the dam looks to be 20 ft higher than the downriver side.My niece lives between Mankato & Mapleton and works in Mankato. Per her mandatory evacuations of parts of "lower" North Mankato are being announced....yikes.
The Sherriff office has been on tv and said no evacuations have been declared…yet. The river is at 28 ft and the levees are designed for 39.5 ft so local emergency management officials have said that if/when the dam breaks a surge of 2 ft is expected. The Army Corps of Engineers and the NWS are working on more accurate models to determine the surge.
The break that started on the west side of the damn has increased in size so officials are hoping that has decreased the pressure on the dam.
Lower North Mankato is the one area of concern because of the Lower Judson Road isn’t behind a levee. Right now they are building an earth wall to cover that area. It is the intersection of Lookout Drive and Lee Boulevard.
I live in West Mankato and my neighborhood should be fine but I do worry about the city keeping the flooding out of the sewer system. I came home this morning to empty our basement just in case.
I pray that this doesn’t end in a catastrophic event.
Not sure, but three different officials have been quoted as saying two feet. I’m more interested to hear from the Army Corps on their models on what the surge would be, they tend to know what’s going on. Blue Earth County was hoping to hear from them this afternoon.
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The Minnesota river is mich wider through Mankato/North Mankato than the Blue Earth river at the dam, so it can spread out some. The last time I was down there (Father's Day), the Minnesota looked to be almost up to the bottom of the flood wall though.
Things are the same at the dam this morning which is good and bad. Bad because the debris is still collecting against the dam and the breech to the west side of the dam continues to erode the bank but it seems to be at a slower rate than yesterday.
Officials reported last night at the Mankato City Council meeting that models from other experts show that if the dam would fail that the surge would be around 6 inches. That is great news from the initial thoughts of around 2 feet. There is also the positive thought that the breech of the dam to the west of it has relieved some of the pressure on the dam itself. They know there is no way to positively prove that other than the river levels upstream have decreased in the last 24 hours.
The Blue Earth River and Minnesota River levels are forecasted to crest today and recede in the days ahead. That is great news as long as the dam holds and the area doesn't get deluged with rain. Thank goodness for the foresight that put the levees in place in the 80's which has saved a lot of destruction from Lower North Mankato, West Mankato, and Downtown Mankato.
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I would imagine the side breach took a lot of pressure off the main dam structure and allowed for water in the reservoir to flow in a "controlled chaos" manner and not one huge surge due to a failure.
I've been reading Twitter so I'm now an expert hydrologist. 🤣
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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Looking at these pictures from this morning it does look like the flow has slowed down on the breech side. You can see the levels of rock where as you couldn't yesterday afternoon.
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The house that was teetering on the bank by the Rapidan Dam fell into the river tonight around 9:30. If you go to KEYC they have video sent in from a person out there tonight.
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Now that I'm at work I can post video of the house falling into the Blue Earth River.
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