I locked the ND thread. Use this one for the next few weeks incase you do not want to use the season thread.
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I hate to say it but after the 18 day layoff I do not think the Gophers will go to far in this seasons playoffs, the 2nd half of this season they are not a top skilled team
Aloha!
As I said in the other thread, the team isn't playing well enough to worry about a layoff. If they lose it won't be because they had so much time off...
This team will go as far as Jimmy Snuggerud goes. Layoff or no layoff.
In his 6 NCAA Tournament games, he has 1 goal and 0 assists. That single goal was in the Fargo Regional against Canisius in 2023. A PPG during a 9-2 MN win that night. He was a +/- of 0 in that game.
ZERO points in his 5 other NCAA games. He has basically disappeared in March & April playing for the Gophers. But especially during the NCAA Tournament.
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Hopefully not off thread topic, but I'm curious about the following:
Bob's team are typically very low penalty teams - which is good on face. However, how much does that contribute to lack of aggressiveness and cause their play to be toned down? This team never seems to have any "edge" to it.
Watching the games this weekend and over the course of year, any time a Gopher gets near an opposing goalie, they get one maybe two shots with an opponents stick to remind them to stay away. And no Gopher shows up to balance the odds and give it back. Just opposite when they crash the Gopher's net --- limited retribution, and other teams swarm to protect their own.
I get there's no fighting in college hockey and Bob wants to limit "dumb penalties", and I'm not suggesting they go Old School Fighting Susie, but at some point, ya gotta defend your own. No?
This would seem to be a culture thing for the program. Curious to get other's opinions.
I get where you're coming from but retaliating definitely cost the team in the national championship 2 years ago and has definitely cost them some five min majors every season. It's a fine line admittedly.
Gophers going to Rochester to scrimmage.
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The lines going forward were mentioned in the season thread but Huglen out could you see lines like the following?
Ziemer Pahlsson Snuggerud
Kurth Clark Wood
Hendrickson Moore Lamb
Falloon Mittlestadt Nevers
The fourth line of Hendrickson Mittlestadt and Nevers has been good but obviously you have to shift things around now and then I don’t think I’d want to break up that second line. Despite Clark not scoring of late I thought they were one of the better lines this past weekend. This also means Whipple, who hasn’t played in a few weeks, is getting thrown back in the mix. Unless he’s suffering from some secret injury.
This team will go as far as Jimmy Snuggerud goes. Layoff or no layoff.
In his 6 NCAA Tournament games, he has 1 goal and 0 assists. That single goal was in the Fargo Regional against Canisius in 2023. A PPG during a 9-2 MN win that night. He was a +/- of 0 in that game.
ZERO points in his 5 other NCAA games. He has basically disappeared in March & April playing for the Gophers. But especially during the NCAA Tournament.
I posted this in the ND thread, but Snuggerud is one I am worried about his mind drifting to what’s after this year. It has already been joked about that he will pack a big bag to St Louis for the frozen four because he won’t be going home for a while. With so much downtime, it’s nearly impossible to not think about when he would join the Blues or what the first NHL game would be like.
I see the article where they are playing an intrasquad scrimmage, but I have a different question: Let's assume St. Thomas or SCSU are eliminated from their tournaments this coming weekend. Would the NCAA allow a scrimmage/practice/simulated game against one of those teams after their season is technically done? Reason I ask is, practice is great, but as AI once said "we talking about practice?"
I am slightly concerned that not having a competition over the course of 18 days might have an impact on game prep.
Aside from that, I'm just not sure they can come up with a way to eliminate all of the mistakes. 11 and 81 continue to try and force blind passes that create turnovers. This has been the case all season, and while they have gotten away with it multiple times, doing that in the tourney won't end well. Also, they were an incredibly creative team at the beginning of the year and that seems to have faded. is that a by-product of the team not improving overall throughout the season, or more of other teams catching on and clogging up passing lanes.
I'll hang up and listen...
Don’t know all the NCAA rules… though I don’t if would want either STU or SCSU… Some SUU or SCSU player could have an axe to grind over a meaningless practice/scrimmage.
If I recall the North Stars and the Gophers used to have a charity fundraiser scrimmage. Too late for a fundraiser scrimmage. Though could the Gophers and Wild have a practice scrimmage?
I'll hang up and listen as well…
Keep your stick on the ice...
This team will go as far as Jimmy Snuggerud goes. Layoff or no layoff.
In his 6 NCAA Tournament games, he has 1 goal and 0 assists. That single goal was in the Fargo Regional against Canisius in 2023. A PPG during a 9-2 MN win that night. He was a +/- of 0 in that game.
ZERO points in his 5 other NCAA games. He has basically disappeared in March & April playing for the Gophers. But especially during the NCAA Tournament.
I posted this in the ND thread, but Snuggerud is one I am worried about his mind drifting to what’s after this year. It has already been joked about that he will pack a big bag to St Louis for the frozen four because he won’t be going home for a while. With so much downtime, it’s nearly impossible to not think about when he would join the Blues or what the first NHL game would be like.
He came back with one of his main goals is a shot at an NC. If he doesn't perform I don't think it will be because his mind is elsewhere. He clearly has a competitive nature and wants to win the game he is in. If anything, I worry about him trying to do too much on his own.
This team will go as far as Jimmy Snuggerud goes. Layoff or no layoff.
In his 6 NCAA Tournament games, he has 1 goal and 0 assists. That single goal was in the Fargo Regional against Canisius in 2023. A PPG during a 9-2 MN win that night. He was a +/- of 0 in that game.
ZERO points in his 5 other NCAA games. He has basically disappeared in March & April playing for the Gophers. But especially during the NCAA Tournament.
I posted this in the ND thread, but Snuggerud is one I am worried about his mind drifting to what’s after this year. It has already been joked about that he will pack a big bag to St Louis for the frozen four because he won’t be going home for a while. With so much downtime, it’s nearly impossible to not think about when he would join the Blues or what the first NHL game would be like.
He came back with one of his main goals is a shot at an NC. If he doesn't perform I don't think it will be because his mind is elsewhere. He clearly has a competitive nature and wants to win the game he is in. If anything, I worry about him trying to do too much on his own.
This. he’s done multiple times this year already and it’s very much not his game
Gophers on a road trip down south.
https://twitter.com/GopherHockey/status/1900600985795350575?t=lqoHZV-WbBu_-KeLCO4qAQ&s=19
I was recently informed by a GPLer that I'm related to Airey
Gophers on a road trip down south.
https://twitter.com/GopherHockey/status/1900600985795350575?t=lqoHZV-WbBu_-KeLCO4qAQ&s=19
all the different attempts at Minnesota hand gestures are pretty funny. 😂
Gophers on a road trip down south.
https://twitter.com/GopherHockey/status/1900600985795350575?t=lqoHZV-WbBu_-KeLCO4qAQ&s=19
I love stuff like this. One of my longtime childhood friends' father worked for the North Stars and several players from the 1980-81 team came to our school DURING their playoff run to the SC final. That's a memory you never forget.
Kinda fun to you wonder if there’s a future gopher hockey player in that group of kids that maybe wasn’t even interested in hockey before that day. Like it.
80 81 North Stars/team USA, such a great time to be a kid. Dino Dino Dino!🦖 😁
Kinda fun to you wonder if there’s a future gopher hockey player in that group of kids that maybe wasn’t even interested in hockey before that day. Like it.
80 81 North Stars/team USA, such a great time to be a kid. Dino Dino Dino!🦖 😁
You mean a kid who's about to financially destroy his parents? 🤣
BC loses to Northeastern.
Sparty escapes ND 1-0.
Sky not falling.
After tonight's action, looks like 4% chance at #3, 38% #4, 47% #5 and 11% #6.
Northeastern could definitely use another win on their season on Thursday (vs Maine). UConn over BU could be useful too, but I think BU is far enough back that we don't worry too much about them. And, as I mentioned in the College Season thread, a UND win over WMU (followed by a loss in the Nacho championship game) would also be good for the Gophers in landing either 3 or 4 overall.
On the plus side, the worst position the Gophers can be in is 6 overall.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
After tonight's action, looks like 4% chance at #3, 38% #4, 47% #5 and 11% #6.
Northeastern could definitely use another win on their season on Thursday (vs Maine). UConn over BU could be useful too, but I think BU is far enough back that we don't worry too much about them. And, as I mentioned in the College Season thread, a UND win over WMU (followed by a loss in the Nacho championship game) would also be good for the Gophers in landing either 3 or 4 overall.
On the plus side, the worst position the Gophers can be in is 6 overall.
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
Regional prediction
FARGO
Gophers, WMU, Q, Penn St
If we finish 4th and Mich/Penn St are 13/14 and last at large teams, do we play an AQ or do they allow the first round vs same conference opponent?
With only 4 B1G teams, I would fully expect them to avoid 1st round matchups.Regional prediction
FARGO
Gophers, WMU, Q, Penn St
If we finish 4th and Mich/Penn St are 13/14 and last at large teams, do we play an AQ or do they allow the first round vs same conference opponent?
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
Good point on that, if PSU makes it, they're in Allentown.
And, doesn't really look like there's any difference in UConn or BU... would need to get in on some serious math to see if the Gophers care on that game. We DO want Northeastern winning HE championship, though.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
Rolling into the weekend, Minnesota had an 80% chance of finishing Top 4, 19% chance @ 5th & 0.7% of finishing 6th. As of today, it’s a 42% chance of finishing Top 4, 47% @ 5th & 11% @ 6th. The Pairwise is an elusive mistress.
Rolling into the weekend, Minnesota had an 80% chance of finishing Top 4, 19% chance @ 5th & 0.7% of finishing 6th. As of today, it’s a 42% chance of finishing Top 4, 47% @ 5th & 11% @ 6th. The Pairwise is an elusive mistress.
it was pretty straightforward. We got every result that could hurt us this weekend. Maine has to lose their next game or they will finish ahead. Wmu likely finishes ahead with a win in their next game
Good point on that, if PSU makes it, they're in Allentown.
And, doesn't really look like there's any difference in UConn or BU... would need to get in on some serious math to see if the Gophers care on that game. We DO want Northeastern winning HE championship, though.
Either uconn and bu will catch us if they win out. Maine will drop behind if they lose to NE. Wmu is still in it depends phase based on if cc gets in or Denver as a win in a semis vs und And loss to du is fine for them as they’ll still be the 4.
Michigan going to be massive fans of du today. They lose and it’s down to wmu to keep them in the tourney and that’s without looking at ne still being alive in he or the array of teams qu could still lose to
Rolling into the weekend, Minnesota had an 80% chance of finishing Top 4, 19% chance @ 5th & 0.7% of finishing 6th. As of today, it’s a 42% chance of finishing Top 4, 47% @ 5th & 11% @ 6th. The Pairwise is an elusive mistress.
it was pretty straightforward. We got every result that could hurt us this weekend. Maine has to lose their next game or they will finish ahead. Wmu likely finishes ahead with a win in their next game
I saw Lucia at Herbie's years ago the weekend before they learned that UMD crashed their party. A lot of chips had to fall against them for Minnesota to get aced out, but the odds were miniscule, like rolling snake eyes 5 times in a row.
I wished the coach good luck in the tournament and told him we'll be watching. He was reluctant to accept our well wishes, telling us it wasn't official just yet. Boy was he right.
The Gophers' hope of a one-seed is taking a similar arc.
I appreciate the positive enthusiasm that the team can suddenly pull off a four-game sweep, but nothing of their play in the second half has me persuaded. There's the penalty kill, the mediocre power play, the scoring challenges of late, and now a goalie question. Even if I believe they could fix all of this in one week and could get over the loss of Huglen, I'd have to bank on Jimmy, Ollie & company to stop skating into one on threes. It's a big ask.
This result does make me question CHN's probability matrix as a whole. With only one underdog winning their series/game this weekend, how did the percentages change that much? If all it took was favorites winning, I'd have expected the Gophers percentages to be lower as we came into the weekend.Rolling into the weekend, Minnesota had an 80% chance of finishing Top 4, 19% chance @ 5th & 0.7% of finishing 6th. As of today, it’s a 42% chance of finishing Top 4, 47% @ 5th & 11% @ 6th. The Pairwise is an elusive mistress.
it was pretty straightforward. We got every result that could hurt us this weekend. Maine has to lose their next game or they will finish ahead. Wmu likely finishes ahead with a win in their next game
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
@steve-mn I’m with ya. Gophers bumped up to #3 after the HE play-in games mid-week. I was hoping for a little bump in the head to head after the OSU win, but their RPI actually dropped by .0001. Again, the Pairwise is a fickle mistress…
This result does make me question CHN's probability matrix as a whole. With only one underdog winning their series/game this weekend, how did the percentages change that much? If all it took was favorites winning, I'd have expected the Gophers percentages to be lower as we came into the weekend.Rolling into the weekend, Minnesota had an 80% chance of finishing Top 4, 19% chance @ 5th & 0.7% of finishing 6th. As of today, it’s a 42% chance of finishing Top 4, 47% @ 5th & 11% @ 6th. The Pairwise is an elusive mistress.
it was pretty straightforward. We got every result that could hurt us this weekend. Maine has to lose their next game or they will finish ahead. Wmu likely finishes ahead with a win in their next game
i believe they use the KRACH ratings and overall upsets are very common in that setting. Couple that with Maine was SUPPOSED to get bc next where they would’ve been a big underdog (and BC was massively favored for winning HE and adding another loss to Maine and one of BU/UConn) and their numbers look much better. About everything that could’ve gone poorly this weekend did
regarding WMU, spoke a little too soon on the if they win the next one. That was assuming du wins today. If cc gets in, they’ll need to win the title as their pwr boost for beating cc won’t surpass a loss to either asu or nd. If DU gets in, then it probably just takes beating und though would be close if they beat und and then lose to asu.
in short, BC losing is the reason it swung so much. Not just the wins for those behind us
@steve-mn I’m with ya. Gophers bumped up to #3 after the HE play-in games mid-week. I was hoping for a little bump in the head to head after the OSU win, but their RPI actually dropped by .0001. Again, the Pairwise is a fickle mistress…
again you’re not getting boosts in conference as you’re losing as much as you gain when you’ve played all these teams 4+ times because of how the rpi is constructed. Take a peek at the primer on college hockey news and you’ll see why with the points for your opponents and your opponents opponents
next weekend gets pretty simple. Can either cheer for ne to win out and this will keep us ahead of all HE schools. If they lose, cheer for Maine
in the NACHO, take wmu to lose.
on the matrix today, if DU wins, you’re going to see our matrix odds for a 1 go up as WMUs odds to win the nchc will go down because du is there and wmu will have a tougher game with nd rather than cc. The rpi numbers are super close which is why it’s swinging so much right now
So, I don't question the changes in the actual RPI numbers and resulting PWR position, for exactly the reasons you state.
I'm just surprised by how far off the probability matrix is with only one real upset this weekend (at least so far). I wouldn't have expected that the matrix would have that many upsets baked into it. That easily could be a matter of weighting the different games in the simulation by KRACH, but, if that's the case, then we get back to my general "this method isn't reliable if favorites winning almost everything results in this large of a change from one day's probabilities to the next"
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
So, I don't question the changes in the actual RPI numbers and resulting PWR position, for exactly the reasons you state.
I'm just surprised by how far off the probability matrix is with only one real upset this weekend (at least so far). I wouldn't have expected that the matrix would have that many upsets baked into it. That easily could be a matter of weighting the different games in the simulation by KRACH, but, if that's the case, then we get back to my general "this method isn't reliable if favorites winning almost everything results in this large of a change from one day's probabilities to the next"
think it’s more an issue of just how big a favorite lost in BC that changed the dynamic so largely. The favorites can get to be pretty aggressive (such as they MSU being a 2/3 favorite vs OSU or WMU being 45% likely to win 2 straight games or prior BC being in the 60% likelihood of winning 3 straight to win HE) and the dogs being quite heavy dogs sometimes (the HE favorites outside BC weren’t large ones comparatively). All depends on how much faith you put in the KRACH abut the difficulty of a 1 and done atmosphere where a single game can swing the cascading results a lot if it’s a big favorite. It’s the BC loss that really dinged the matrix odds more than anything given KRACH sims expected them to win about 80-90% of the time vs NE and 60-70% of the time against anyone else left in HE, which protects the gophs in a large number of sims. Will be ditto on WMU if DU loses today. Would guess it gets closer to into MNs favor to keep a 1 if DU wins.
TBH, I think KRACH kind of falls off a bit in playoff hockey time where the games get tighter and closer to coin flips.
@upnorthkid I hear ya but seeing as I just can’t get behind DU and it’s a cold day in Hades when I cheer for the Sue, I guess I’m my own worst enemy. Thanks for the insight on the in- conference vs RPI though… much appreciated 👍
@upnorthkid I hear ya but seeing as I just can’t get behind DU and it’s a cold day in Hades when I cheer for the Sue, I guess I’m my own worst enemy. Thanks for the insight on the in- conference vs RPI though… much appreciated 👍
then cheer for CC today to knock out DU and follow it up with beating WMU in the semis 😎
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@upnorthkid I hear ya but seeing as I just can’t get behind DU and it’s a cold day in Hades when I cheer for the Sue, I guess I’m my own worst enemy. Thanks for the insight on the in- conference vs RPI though… much appreciated 👍
then cheer for CC today to knock out DU and follow it up with beating WMU in the semis 😎
I think we need to start cheering for the opposite of what will benefit us - a little reverse psychology maybe will help? 😬
Not going well for CC right now…
My attitude is:
Next?
That's it. If one thinks otherwise, you lose the battle.
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
My attitude is:
Next?
That's it. If one thinks otherwise, you lose the battle.
“There's a tradition in tournament play to not talk about the next step until you've climbed the one in front of you.”
Norman Dale - Hoosiers
RIP Gene Hackman
Keep your stick on the ice...
@upnorthkid I hear ya but seeing as I just can’t get behind DU and it’s a cold day in Hades when I cheer for the Sue, I guess I’m my own worst enemy. Thanks for the insight on the in- conference vs RPI though… much appreciated 👍
then cheer for CC today to knock out DU and follow it up with beating WMU in the semis 😎
I think we need to start cheering for the opposite of what will benefit us - a little reverse psychology maybe will help? 😬
Not going well for CC right now…
i was all in on the DU winning, ND beating WMU and then DU beating ND on an OT goal to win the NCHC and keep UND at home while continuing to employ Brad Berry train
You are the committee (the thing on CHN where you pick results of all games is live).
pure chalk with du beating wmu in the nchc title makes gophs the 4 and likely drawing Mankato in Fargo (PSU and Michigan get in). This thing is going to get funky and if that’s the result you’re going to have some very pissed HE fans. In that setting, Kato actually passes Michigan and is in as the 14 and Mich the 15 so not many ways to argue it unless you want to really punish mn and the b10 and move us and Maine and give us PSU in Allentown as the 4-13 for bracket integrity (5 B10 schools in this scenario)
if it’s the same but ASU wins, we are the 4 and Michigan gets bounced and we’ll probably draw ASU.
Straight chalk and we likely get UMass or Denver and have a regional with wmu
@upnorthkid Man, Denver absolutely destroyed CC so I guess I’m ‘cheering’ for the Sue to take down Western. Man, that sounds strange… lol
@slap-shot I'm a bit late to this discussion, but those are my kids with Lamb jersey and gold jersey. I have been a Gopher fan since the early 90s, and as much as I tried, I couldn't get my kids into hockey or the Gophers. Then, my daughter had Mrs. Lamb for a teacher, and she invited us to meet Brody after a game during his freshman season. Now both my kids bleed maroon and gold and they both play hockey because of the connection they have with Brody and the Gophers. My daughter got to amaze her friends at school by greeting all the players by first name as they departed the bus and introduce her friends to the players she has met over the last couple of years. It was an awesome experience and hopefully we get some new Gopher fans and hockey players as a result.
@slap-shot I'm a bit late to this discussion, but those are my kids with Lamb jersey and gold jersey. I have been a Gopher fan since the early 90s, and as much as I tried, I couldn't get my kids into hockey or the Gophers. Then, my daughter had Mrs. Lamb for a teacher, and she invited us to meet Brody after a game during his freshman season. Now both my kids bleed maroon and gold and they both play hockey because of the connection they have with Brody and the Gophers. My daughter got to amaze her friends at school by greeting all the players by first name as they departed the bus and introduce her friends to the players she has met over the last couple of years. It was an awesome experience and hopefully we get some new Gopher fans and hockey players as a result.
That's a great story and thanks for the share.
Feel Good story of the day!
The rest might be the best thing ever. 4 big wins is all it takes. This team has the talent and can skate with anybody rolling all 4 lines. Go Gophers!
There has been a lot of negativity about the 18 day layoff.
I imagine there are also potential positives? Coaches can start film prep on WMU, UMass, and Kato. Shouldn’t have anyone banged up. Work on detail (draws, PP, and PK).
Obviously rust is a concern but interested to hear from folks with insight into the prep and practice routines?
I'm not sure which is worse, the layoff or the permanent loss of Huglen. Just one of them hurts badly. Together? Oof.
The team's top players, including the goaltending, were flat down the stretch. That must change or it's an early flame-out.
As far as the layoff goes, sure it's nice to get some rest and get through all the nagging injuries. But I worry the team won't find its feet for a couple periods, and then it may be too late. The best we can hope for is that Souliere is brilliant. That would energize the players.