And there's the Severe Thunderstorm watch for South Dakota starting at 3:45. I'd guess in 30-60 minutes there will be a "mesoscale discussion" for Minnesota, with a watch following another 30-60 minutes after that. I'm pretty certain both will happen, just a matter of whether my timing guesses are correct.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
Right now the corn around here is looking too good to be true. Let's hope that doesn't end tonight.As a guess, stuff will be forming off the back edge and start moving toward SW Minnesota
I just hope the derecho type winds calm down some before the storms get near south central Minnesota.
or near the farms in Sw Mn. We went through derecho's a couple of years ago. 2 of them within a month. Not good.
A bit of a light and sound show here in Hopkins/Tonka. Subtle, but it's a-comin'....
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
Right now the corn around here is looking too good to be true. Let's hope that doesn't end tonight.As a guess, stuff will be forming off the back edge and start moving toward SW Minnesota
I just hope the derecho type winds calm down some before the storms get near south central Minnesota.
or near the farms in Sw Mn. We went through derecho's a couple of years ago. 2 of them within a month. Not good.
Well, the one weather website was off by 3.10 inches for our rain prediction. We ended up with .05 inches. I am thankful the storms missed us, as some major wind and rain happened to our south. I know that predicting weather is like herding cats, but they missed this one by a mile.
I was recently informed by a GPLer that I'm related to Airey
Mankato missed out on anything major. The storm split before it passed Mankato and then it did develop to the south after it passed and intensified before hitting Owatonna and Faribault. Got about .25" of rain maybe in the 15-20 minutes it took to pass by Mankato. Had some wind at the beginning but nothing major, the airport did report gusts of 45-50 mph but I don't think in West Mankato had anything that strong.
It is fascinating to me how people are reacting to this storm in comments online. Some people are pissed that they didn't get any severe weather. They aren't mad that the forecast didn't get it right but they are seriously upset that they didn't get bad weather, "it always misses us". Really? You want 80-90 mph straightline winds and your power to be out for 10 hours or more? There are a idiots that are mad that the meteorologists didn't get it exactly right. There are so many factors that can change a storm but I think that overall the weather people get it pretty damn close these days. It's damn weatherbaiters on faceplace and tweeterville that get people all riled up. I have my three guys I pay attention too and I will never give the storm chasers and other content creators any of my time.
I'm glad that things worked out well in my area and I hope that those who did get the high winds didn't get much damage and get power back as soon as possible.
I am the official Iowa Hawkeye football fan of GPL!
My assumption is that people mad about severe weather missing them are either kids, renting, or otherwise haven’t been hit financially by it before. (Let alone had some sort of childhood trauma or family tragedy occur) I’m sure that doesn’t cover everyone and there are some true knuckleheads, though.
My wife and I cheered when it hailed a few years ago, because we needed a new roof. We will never cheer for hail again. Working with roofing contractors sucks.
'29, '40, '74, '76, '79, '02, & '03
GPL's Resident Cabin Enthusiast & Cadets Hockey Fan
More like a hundred miles. We were projected to be on the north edge of the storm, instead we were on the south edge of it.Right now the corn around here is looking too good to be true. Let's hope that doesn't end tonight.As a guess, stuff will be forming off the back edge and start moving toward SW Minnesota
I just hope the derecho type winds calm down some before the storms get near south central Minnesota.
or near the farms in Sw Mn. We went through derecho's a couple of years ago. 2 of them within a month. Not good.
I know that predicting weather is like herding cats, but they missed this one by a mile.
Driving to work today from Rosemount to Bloomington was surprised of how little to no damage I saw. I’m sure it’s out there, just on my way to work I didn’t see any. Watching the news last night it looks like Owatonna and Shakopee both got hit pretty good.
Keep your stick on the ice...
More like a hundred miles. We were projected to be on the north edge of the storm, instead we were on the south edge of it.Right now the corn around here is looking too good to be true. Let's hope that doesn't end tonight.As a guess, stuff will be forming off the back edge and start moving toward SW Minnesota
I just hope the derecho type winds calm down some before the storms get near south central Minnesota.
or near the farms in Sw Mn. We went through derecho's a couple of years ago. 2 of them within a month. Not good.
I know that predicting weather is like herding cats, but they missed this one by a mile.
Just goes to show how much of both a science and an art weather forecasting is. I read somewhere that the NWS currently can accurately predict a tornados path about 12 minutes ahead of time. They compared to the 1960s when they could accurately predict a tornados path a minute after it passed through.
'29, '40, '74, '76, '79, '02, & '03
GPL's Resident Cabin Enthusiast & Cadets Hockey Fan
Very true. In the 1960s, the only way we knew there was a tornado was if someone called in telling them there was one on the ground (or looking at it after the fact, of course). Now, the radar is at the point that we can see the conditions that likely could lead to a tornado, and, for larger tornadoes, can actually see them on radar from the debris being kicked up and the intensity of the winds driving the rain/etc, to the degree that with the right software, you can show a 3-d model of the tornado in the radar data.
Having said that, any forecast is still only a probability. For temperature and such on a daily basis, they tend to be incredibly accurate. Rain and especially storms have so many variables going into them that determines the full strength and exact path, that we only have probabilities until less than an hour or so ahead of time.
Overall, yesterday's forecast was really pretty good, they just hadn't seen the storm splitting into two pieces and diverging from each other, leaving much of the heart of the threat area hit much less than expected, with two different systems moving out to flank that area with much stronger effects.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
Just goes to show how much of both a science and an art weather forecasting is. I read somewhere that the NWS currently can accurately predict a tornados path about 12 minutes ahead of time. They compared to the 1960s when they could accurately predict a tornados path a minute after it passed through.
Do you know what the % of accuracy is?
Keep your stick on the ice...
Keep your stick on the ice...
How well is your corn standing?
All tasseled with ears on. Looks good. Just need to survive any weather until harvest. Soybeans look good, but farmers, including me, are having major weed issues. The conditions are either perfect for the weeds this year or they are growing resistant to the spray. I hope it is not the latter. Could need the prices to go up, but we farmers say that every year.. lol
I was recently informed by a GPLer that I'm related to Airey
Keep your stick on the ice...
Homeowner's insurance is moving to deductibles of 1% of the value of the home for storm damage vs $1000 flat rate. Nobody will be cheering for hail any longer.My wife and I cheered when it hailed a few years ago, because we needed a new roof. We will never cheer for hail again. Working with roofing contractors sucks.
Mine already did that. I had some extensive gutter damage due to ice and found out the policy offers me no benefit vis-a-vis the cost of replacement.Homeowner's insurance is moving to deductibles of 1% of the value of the home for storm damage vs $1000 flat rate. Nobody will be cheering for hail any longer.My wife and I cheered when it hailed a few years ago, because we needed a new roof. We will never cheer for hail again. Working with roofing contractors sucks.
So, to summarize, insurance premiums have skyrocketed AND the deductible has gone way up, relieving the insurance agency of many potential claims altogether, not to mention cutting their payouts for larger claims.
I was recently informed by a GPLer that I'm related to Airey
Milwaukee got some rain.
A friend does a booth at various state fairs (ND, WI, MN) and she just posted the last day of the WI fair was cancelled. Her stand (Henna) survived but sounds like a lot of flood damage on the fairgrounds.
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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With that amount of rain, even with good drainage, you're going to get local flooding, and a lot of wet basements
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
I remember a day when I was kid that we got 9” of rain. I lived in New Hope, which never floods. But it did after 9” of rain. My dad was on the fire department and he had to drive a fire truck through deep water at the bottom of a hill. And the wake of the truck caused the cars on either side to drift together and collide. WhoopsWith that amount of rain, even with good drainage, you're going to get local flooding, and a lot of wet basements
All the kids rode bikes through the flooded park to though water so deep it covered our handle bars and we swam through a Culvert beneath a flooded bridge. Really dumb, but we lived and have great memories.
1987 June or July I was living down by lakes on Mpls we received about 16 inches of rain I was living in the basement of our house major flooding
Aloha!
That July ‘87 night was insane.
I still made it from Roseville to Burnsville for pickup hockey. 🥅
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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For the life of me, I don't remember that night. Yes, I was a young'n, but was there something outstanding, like a restaurant that got hit, or a highway that got decimated, anything like that?
Example: The tornado that went through Brooklyn Park/Center and destroyed the Pannekoeken Haus around that time.....
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
We could see the tornado from our rooftop. How Midwestern is that?For the life of me, I don't remember that night. Yes, I was a young'n, but was there something outstanding, like a restaurant that got hit, or a highway that got decimated, anything like that?
Example: The tornado that went through Brooklyn Park/Center and destroyed the Pannekoeken Haus around that time.....
Pretty midwestern. Caught the eye of a tornado before we headed to Hinckley to gamble. 
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
I was working GTOM in Madison when that storm went by Sat. We got lucky being on the south edge it just rained for about 20 minutes. Could have been ugly with 6K people outside in a park.
Knew quite a few people out there this weekend, wondered how that went....I was working GTOM in Madison when that storm went by Sat. We got lucky being on the south edge it just rained for about 20 minutes. Could have been ugly with 6K people outside in a park.
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
I was too young to remember it, but my dad took pictures of that ‘86 tornado that just hung out in Fridley from our roof in Coon Rapids.
I am over the rain this summer...it just seems to rain every 5-7 days. I think Mankato is only about 3-4 inches over from the average but it seems like we are about 10 inches over the average.
I am the official Iowa Hawkeye football fan of GPL!
I almost never turn down rain…
Though having a 7-10 day span of no rain would be nice. I have a 3 stall garage packed full of books and school curriculum my wife is selling for teachers and homeschoolers. So the books and curriculum need to be outside in the driveway for people to sort through. And her plan is sell as much as she can so she can just use 2 stalls as her bookstore.
Keep your stick on the ice...
Possible frost tonight out here in SW MN. Average first fall frost date is Sept 27th. Not ideal.
I was recently informed by a GPLer that I'm related to Airey
Yay, it's hoodie (and maybe jacket) in the morning, then start peeling layers, and then re-adding layers as the day goes on! And of course, start building up your "winter blood."
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
Possible frost tonight out here in SW MN. Average first fall frost date is Sept 27th. Not ideal.
want us to run some blankets down to cover the crops? 😁
seriously though, hope this doesn’t ruin too much. 😬
Knew quite a few people out there this weekend, wondered how that went....I was working GTOM in Madison when that storm went by Sat. We got lucky being on the south edge it just rained for about 20 minutes. Could have been ugly with 6K people outside in a park.
Actually worked out OK cause it was hot AF. 90 degrees with a dew point of 74…miserable. The drunkards didn’t let it slow them down. That beer fest is long and the level of proper/right to the line drinking there is epic. Good time. And that Saturday night around Madison is always wild.