The interesting thing is Michigan played U Mass, Providence, and St Cloud in non conference games this season going 3-2-1 with 4 of the 6 games on the road so I think it is fair to say they are as good or better then teams that are in position to keep them out of the NCAA tournament.
Home split against U Mass
Road split with Providence
Road win and tie against St. Cloud
Michigan is currently behind these teams because they is 2-7-1 against Wisconsin, Michigan St, and the Gophers.
They are 12-4-2 against everybody else.
The Big Ten would improve their chances of getting in 4 teams into the NCCA tournament if they added an 8th team. Having only 7 teams makes it more difficult for the 4th team to get enough wins since half of their conference schedulde is against the top 3 teams in the conference.
U Mass and Providence have only 6 or 8 games against BC, BU, and Maine (Hockey East has 11 teams) while Michigan plays 12 games against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota.
U Mass is 0-1-1 against BU (haven't played BC or Maine). They have a home and home series against BC and a road series against Maine left.
Providence is 2-3-0 against BC and Maine (one of the wins was in the 3 on 3 OT) with 3 games left against BU.
it also is because they scheduled lindenwood and stonehill rather than try give them better wins against teams under comparison so getting blasted by all the top teams they’ve played and merely splitting against anyone else remotely near the cut line is going to put you in a bad spot.
I agree there is likely going to be a big difference (in term of Michigan's at large chances) between them going 4-2 vs. 5-1 but a lot has to do with how the 5 teams ahead of them do.
The NCHC and Hockey East both have 4 regular season weekends left. There could be some interested twists and turns with how Western Michigan (6 games), St Cloud (6 games), U Mass (8 games) and Providence (7 games) finish their regular seasons and how they do in their conference playoffs.
#11 Western Michigan and #13 St. Cloud both have a bye this week but then play a 2 games series in St. Cloud next weekend.
With the way RPI/Pairwise handles 3 on 3 OT it could be that if Michigan has an OT game whether they win it or lose it going 4-1 in the other 5 will likely improve their RPI the biggest factor in Pairwise.
If Michigan wins the Big Ten first round series (which they almost certainly will need to unless they go 6-0) they would then likely get a chance to get a big road win in the Big Ten semis against a top 5 Wisconsin or Michigan State.
I agree there is likely going to be a big difference (in term of Michigan's at large chances) between them going 4-2 vs. 5-1 but a lot has to do with how the 5 teams ahead of them do.
The NCHC and Hockey East both have 4 regular season weekends left. There could be some interested twists and turns with how Western Michigan (6 games), St Cloud (6 games), U Mass (8 games) and Providence (7 games) finish their regular seasons and how they do in their conference playoffs.
#11 Western Michigan and #13 St. Cloud both have a bye this week but then play a 2 games series in St. Cloud next weekend.
With the way RPI/Pairwise hands 3 on 3 OT it could that if Michigan has an OT game whether they win it or lose it going 4-1 in the other 5 would likely improve their RPI the biggest factor in Pairwise.
If Michigan wins the Big Ten first round series (which they almost certainly will need to unless they go 6-0) they would then likely get a chance to get a big road win in he Big Ten semis against a top 5 Wisconsin or Michigan State.
that’s the joy of the Monte Carlo structure they use is that it was played out 20000 times for us already 😃
The matrix doesn't tells us if Michigan finishes 5-1 or 4-2 if they will or wouldn't make it since no model can tell us that at this time since there are too many unknowns.
The matrix doesn't tells us if Michigan finishes 5-1 or 4-2 if they will or wouldn't make it since no model can tell us that at this time since there are too many unknowns.
its how the spread occurs and is based on KRACH ratings, so their highest distribution is going to be them going 4-2 (sweep PSU and ND and be swept by Minn) with then variation going both directions. Though you can’t see it in granularity, you can infer. That said, yes there’s absolutely a reason it gets more and more accurate as it’s closer to seasons end and of course you don’t know what their “projected percentage” is based on going 4-2 vs 5-1 absolutely if that’s what you mean.
What I am saying is that since the at large cut line (what Pairwise # will get the last at large spot) isn't determined until all the conference tournaments are over we don't know what spot Michigan needs to get to so we don't know if Michigan needs to go 5-1 or not.
The portion on the left side of the matrix that says Michigan has a 37% (29 at large and 9 AQ) chance of making the NCAA appears to be based on #13 being the last at large spot which is an assumption at this time.
I too love the matrix and look at it a lot. It is definitely helpful. I am not meaning to criticizes it. I am just share information for people who look in this thread. Engineering often share a lot of data/information that people may or may not want because we enjoy the data and talking about it. That is what I am doing. 😀
I personally wouldn't shed a tear if Michigan misses the tournament.
The Big Ten having only 7 teams does making it harder for the 4th team to make it since you play 12 conference games against the top 3 while in Hockey East the 4th/5th teams are only playing the top 3 teams 6 or 8 games resulting in the top teams in the Big Ten beating up on each more than they do in Hockey East.
Coach brought up this point last year.
It is generally unheard of for a conference to get more than half of their teams into the NCAA tournament which is what needs to happen for the Big Ten to get 4 teams. Since there are many more conference games than non conference games conference opponents beat each other up - record wise.
The Big Ten was able to accomplish it last year but it is very unusually. If the Big Ten is able to do it again this year it is further indication of the conference's overall strength since their non conference records in total is an important reason why they were able to get over half their teams in the tournament.
I personally wouldn't shed a tear if Michigan misses the tournament.
The Big Ten having only 7 teams does making it harder for the 4th team to make it since you play 12 conference games against the top 3 while in Hockey East the 4th/5th teams are only playing the top 3 teams 6 or 8 games resulting in the top teams in the Big Ten beating up on each more than they do in Hockey East.
Coach brought up this point last year.
It is generally unheard of for a conference to get more than half of their teams into the NCAA tournament which is what needs to happen for the Big Ten to get 4 teams. Since there are many more conference games than non conference games conference opponents beat each other up - record wise.
The Big Ten was able to accomplish it last year but it is very unusually. If the Big Ten is able to do it again this year it is further indication of the conference's overall strength since their non conference records in total is an important reason why they were able to get over half their teams in the tournament.
If memory serves didn't Hockey East only have two teams in last year? That conference had a down year compared to their usual standards. That certainly would have helped the BIG's cause last year.
'29, '40, '74, '76, '79, '02, & '03
GPL's Resident Cabin Enthusiast & Cadets Hockey Fan
Yes Hockey East was down last year but the ECAC had a great year which makes sense that these two things happened the same season since Hockey East and the ECAC play a lot of non conference games against each other. So Hockey East being down last year helped the ECAC the most or another way of saying the same thing is the ECAC having a great year hurt Hockey East the most.
BTW the Big Ten putting an absolute beat down on the CCHA this season going 14-0-1 is the main reason the CCHA has the worst non conference record including the Atlantic Hockey conference.
This along with the parity in the CCHA is why it's highest Pairwise team ranking is #29.
Ohio State is currently ranked #32 due to being 1-15-2 in Big Ten games but they are 8-0-2 in non conference games. They have
a win (4-0) and a tie (2-2) at #19 Omaha (NCHC)
and a home and home sweep (6-2 and 4-2) of Bowling Green (4th place in the CCHA)
I would be willing to bet Ohio State would win the CCHA regular season title and have the best chance at the AQ (make the NCAA tournament) if they joined their Ohio neighbor in the CCHA.
Since the Buckeyes are sucking in Big Ten play in both hockey and basketball how about we kick them out of the conference (you are the weakest link good bye) to give them a chance to play more competition that they can match up against. 🤣 😉
OK can someone please help me here? So we use a system that relies more on who you play in your conference, even if that conference is weak, than strength of schedule? By the SOS I would think more B10 and maybe even conferences in the midwest areas should get more bids? If weaker East teams are playing mostly weak east teams? How is that an algorithm for the tournament. I am not a math idiot, just new to actually paying attention. Give me the nuts and bolts please?
Thank you! I should have clarified. I do know that is how they do things, but I guess my question is more is that really a valid way of having the best teams in the NCAA at the end? I am for sure biased but it doesn't seem like anything accounts for the fact that some conferences play MUCH tougher opponents all the time than others. Hockey east has a couple but they hardly play each other? Is there another conference where the teams play top teams every weekend? Sorry.... Showing my Gopher bias here but even the other B10 teams seem like they have a very tough road compared to some east teams. I suppose they want representation from all corners.
Thank you! I should have clarified. I do know that is how they do things, but I guess my question is more is that really a valid way of having the best teams in the NCAA at the end? I am for sure biased but it doesn't seem like anything accounts for the fact that some conferences play MUCH tougher opponents all the time than others. Hockey east has a couple but they hardly play each other? Is there another conference where the teams play top teams every weekend? Sorry.... Showing my Gopher bias here but even the other B10 teams seem like they have a very tough road compared to some east teams. I suppose they want representation from all corners.
I think KRACH is better as a way to do it. The Big Ten did it to itself by scheduling the likes of Lindenwood and Stonehill (as well as RMU, amongst others). Your opponents opponents hurt us all in terms of RPI. The top of HE is very good this year as is the NCHC. The East-West breakdown is currently 8-8 given the west has CCHA 1, NCHC 4, B10 3, and the east AHA 1, ECAC, 2, HE 5). BC and BU currently have the #1 and 2 schedules. I think some of that bias comes from the AHA and ECAC who are typically poorer as whole conferences with some top tier teams and the B10 and NCHC are deep all the way through (OSU and Miami nonwithstanding this year).
B10: average PWR 15.7
HE: average PWR 16.8
NCHC: average PWR 17.5
It's not as discrepant across the conferences as you think if you get rid of the conferences that are worse this year (CCHA, AHA, ECAC)
If KRACH would have been used last season 6 of the 7 Big Ten teams would have made the NCAA tournament. That is how dominate the Big Ten was last season and the Gophers won the league title by 19 points (more than 6 full games).
Minnesota did kill off a 5-on-3 penalty while goaltender Justen Close made 66 saves on the weekend. Rhett Pitclick scored twice on Friday while Aaron Huglen doubled up on Saturday. The Gophers struck first, of course, something Motzko said was necessary.
Pitclick might have to replace Potluck at this point...
Per CHN the average KRACH and SOS by conference with the B1G #1 for both:
that's interesting to look given the overall games played against the current field and how the B10 has performed. We're also a little further through our conference season which is going to drag the SOS up for HE and NCHC when they play more games. That said, think it does show what we've seen this year in that HE and B10 look a little better as conference as a whole compared to NCHC and then the rest are in the distance.
That league will only get an auto bid like the AHA. Its way down this year with Tech and Minnesota State regressing big time. Isn't fledgling St. Thomas leading the standings even though they cant participate in the NCAA's?
'29, '40, '74, '76, '79, '02, & '03
GPL's Resident Cabin Enthusiast & Cadets Hockey Fan
Just an FYI for anyone else who has been seeing this:
This does NOT apply to current season ticket holders - so even if you sit in the non-donation end you will not be required to pay an extra $100 per parking pass or to keep your postseason priority. At least that is what the ticket rep I spoke to said. It was rather confusing (he agreed) but that’s what I know. 😁
Side note to the conversation: It is totally ridiculous that St Thomas got a 5 year NCAA postseason ban.
Pretty sure that is standard for any school moving up to D1.
5 yr. ban from NCAA postseason. Though can they play in the CCHA postseason. If so and they win it. Does the auto bid go to the runner-up?
I have not been able to find that info anywhere. I don't know if it is the runner-up or the regular season champion. And if St Thomas were to win both... who knows.
Side note to the conversation: It is totally ridiculous that St Thomas got a 5 year NCAA postseason ban.
Pretty sure that is standard for any school moving up to D1.
5 yr. ban from NCAA postseason. Though can they play in the CCHA postseason. If so and they win it. Does the auto bid go to the runner-up?
I have not been able to find that info anywhere. I don't know if it is the runner-up or the regular season champion. And if St Thomas were to win both... who knows.
Pretty sure it is the runner up. That's what usually happens in basketball when teams make those transitions as well.
Side note to the conversation: It is totally ridiculous that St Thomas got a 5 year NCAA postseason ban.
Pretty sure that is standard for any school moving up to D1.
5 yr. ban from NCAA postseason. Though can they play in the CCHA postseason. If so and they win it. Does the auto bid go to the runner-up?
I have not been able to find that info anywhere. I don't know if it is the runner-up or the regular season champion. And if St Thomas were to win both... who knows.
Pretty sure it is the runner up. That's what usually happens in basketball when teams make those transitions as well.
from USCHO discussion on topic:
If St. Thomas were to win the conference tournament and the conference doesn’t have any team qualified for an at-large bid, which it likely won’t, the runner-up in that tournament would earn the conference’s bid.
Bob Motzko when asked about Mason Nevers: “he’s all heart, he’s all about this program, it’s great.” Sounds like a guy who’s likely coming back for a 5th season. Koster is the one that’s up in the air.
1. Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, 19 (University of Minnesota)
One of the hottest prospects in hockey last season, Snuggerud went from B-plus prospect to A-grade prospect (or close) at the University of Minnesota with a rare 50-point freshman season. He’s not going to get to 50 again this season after linemates Logan Cooley and Matthew Knies both turned pro, but he has played to a point per game again, he’s going to score 20 goals again, and he’s the Golden Gophers’ leading scorer.
His game was always strong at the program, where he played on its top line and showed above-average tools and first-round merits, but every piece of it has elevated a little since then. Plus-shot (had that already). Plus-skill. Good enough skater (has gained half a step). Hard on pucks. Hunts and sticks with pucks. Around it. Consistently impactful. Finding ways to release and move as soon as he has made his play so that he can get open for the next one again. It’s all there now.
And maybe we all should have seen it coming. When I polled the 2004 U.S. NTDP players for their most underrated teammate, he was basically the unanimous answer.
Snuggerud is a well-rounded three-zone player with a versatile offensive game who can make plays with skill and will. His head is always up and on a swivel, even in congested areas. He’s good below the goal line and makes a lot of low-to-high plays into the slot to find cutting teammates for chances. He goes to scoring areas and follows shots to the net to get to rebounds, playing a determined forechecking game. He’s got a dangerous one-timer, catch-and-release wrister and natural shooting motion (pucks come off of his blade hard and quickly) but he doesn’t tunnel-vision for his shot, he sees the ice well, and he can make plays back against the grain. He’s got good hands, which help him make outside-in plays to beat defenders one-on-one more than he gets credit for. He uses space well and makes a lot of plays off of his backhand. He’s strong on pucks and stick lifts. He’s got some touch as a passer.
And on top of it all, he’s also got a pro frame to build upon and a June birthday that gives him good runway. With continued progress, there’s a goal-scoring top-six winger there. He’s probably a scoring third-liner at his floor.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
What I am saying is that since the at large cut line (what Pairwise # will get the last at large spot) isn't determined until all the conference tournaments are over we don't know what spot Michigan needs to get to so we don't know if Michigan needs to go 5-1 or not.
The portion on the left side of the matrix that says Michigan has a 37% (29 at large and 9 AQ) chance of making the NCAA appears to be based on #13 being the last at large spot which is an assumption at this time.
I too love the matrix and look at it a lot. It is definitely helpful. I am not meaning to criticizes it. I am just share information for people who look in this thread. Engineering often share a lot of data/information that people may or may not want because we enjoy the data and talking about it. That is what I am doing. 😀
I don't think this is necessarily the case. I think the cut line spot changes every single time they run the simulation and is based on what the actual outcome ends up as. While that cut line is going to be really close to 13/14 from the standpoint of random chance (given CCHA and AHA AQs automatically make it 14 minimum), i think that number lining up pretty well is just from the raw numbers being run with it being statistically improbable that 2/4 of ECAC, HE, NCHC, and B10 end up with autobids (especially when the sims have the ALs winning each conference about 80-90% of the time)
This might be a dumb question but I'm new to college hockey so I'll ask... Does the committee try and avoid rematches in the first round. Obviously they try and avoid conference play but would they also try and avoid for example Gophers and CC first round since they already played this season?
This might be a dumb question but I'm new to college hockey so I'll ask... Does the committee try and avoid rematches in the first round. Obviously they try and avoid conference play but would they also try and avoid for example Gophers and CC first round since they already played this season?
There are no dump questions we learn by asking questions.
No they only try to avoid conference matchups in the 1st round not teams that played in non conference games such as the Gophers and CC.
