/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24131129/gallery_image.JPG "Hey_Sioux_Suck")
2 wins against Penn State next weekend and all of a sudden we’re 18-7-5 and likely top 8 in the pairwise.
Off the wall opinion, I think a 6 seed gives us a great shot at a home ice Frozen Four. The 3 and 4 seeds are the "weaker" of the 1 seeds, usually not on a steeper trajectory than #1 and #2...usually. Like the 2022 regional where the tougher game was facing a home ice UMass squad, then beating a downward trending WMU team.
2 wins against Penn State next weekend and all of a sudden we’re 18-7-5 and likely top 8 in the pairwise.
Off the wall opinion, I think a 6 seed gives us a great shot at a home ice Frozen Four. The 3 and 4 seeds are the "weaker" of the 1 seeds, usually not on a steeper trajectory than #1 and #2...usually. Like the 2022 regional where the tougher game was facing a home ice UMass squad, then beating a downward trending WMU team.
probably need to win 5/6 and then sweep our opener series to get to a 6 or get some help. But agree it’d be nice to stay off the 8/9 and 7/10 line (provided they don’t “move for attendance”) as BC and UND look solid. Another dark horse thing to watch would be Omaha as If they sneak in, UND is moving out east which drastically could change home ice advantages
2 wins against Penn State next weekend and all of a sudden we’re 18-7-5 and likely top 8 in the pairwise.
Off the wall opinion, I think a 6 seed gives us a great shot at a home ice Frozen Four. The 3 and 4 seeds are the "weaker" of the 1 seeds, usually not on a steeper trajectory than #1 and #2...usually. Like the 2022 regional where the tougher game was facing a home ice UMass squad, then beating a downward trending WMU team.
probably need to win 5/6 and then sweep our opener series to get to a 6 or get some help. But agree it’d be nice to stay off the 8/9 and 7/10 line (provided they don’t “move for attendance”) as BC and UND look solid. Another dark horse thing to watch would be Omaha as If they sneak in, UND is moving out east which drastically could change home ice advantages
You know, I think 5/6 is doable with sweepable matchups vs PSU and at ND coming up. A week off to regroup and heal followed by a splitable home series with Michigan. The B1G QF series at home vs a lower seed conference team is again...doable. I really love how the schedule lines up for us finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B1G and getting the extra series to refine things before the big tournament.
2 wins against Penn State next weekend and all of a sudden we’re 18-7-5 and likely top 8 in the pairwise.
Off the wall opinion, I think a 6 seed gives us a great shot at a home ice Frozen Four. The 3 and 4 seeds are the "weaker" of the 1 seeds, usually not on a steeper trajectory than #1 and #2...usually. Like the 2022 regional where the tougher game was facing a home ice UMass squad, then beating a downward trending WMU team.
probably need to win 5/6 and then sweep our opener series to get to a 6 or get some help. But agree it’d be nice to stay off the 8/9 and 7/10 line (provided they don’t “move for attendance”) as BC and UND look solid. Another dark horse thing to watch would be Omaha as If they sneak in, UND is moving out east which drastically could change home ice advantages
You know, I think 5/6 is doable with sweepable matchups vs PSU and at ND coming up. A week off to regroup and heal followed by a splitable home series with Michigan. The B1G QF series at home vs a lower seed conference team is again...doable. I really love how the schedule lines up for us finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B1G and getting the extra series to refine things before the big tournament.
I feel like the B1G quarterfinal series is an absolute must for this team to stay in tournament shape...the bye before Michigan and a bye after isn't worth another regular season banner IMO. Would be super fun to get another crack at the BADgers in Madison for the B1G tournament title game.
Come on people... I'm at 100% with a bit of a drive 😉
Piggybacking this thread.
Ive missed roughly ten home games since 2003.
Would be super fun to get another crack at the BADgers in Madison for the B1G tournament title game.
I will drink to this. If MN gets another shot at the red pukes they'd hammer them.
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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2 wins against Penn State next weekend and all of a sudden we’re 18-7-5 and likely top 8 in the pairwise.
Off the wall opinion, I think a 6 seed gives us a great shot at a home ice Frozen Four. The 3 and 4 seeds are the "weaker" of the 1 seeds, usually not on a steeper trajectory than #1 and #2...usually. Like the 2022 regional where the tougher game was facing a home ice UMass squad, then beating a downward trending WMU team.
probably need to win 5/6 and then sweep our opener series to get to a 6 or get some help. But agree it’d be nice to stay off the 8/9 and 7/10 line (provided they don’t “move for attendance”) as BC and UND look solid. Another dark horse thing to watch would be Omaha as If they sneak in, UND is moving out east which drastically could change home ice advantages
You know, I think 5/6 is doable with sweepable matchups vs PSU and at ND coming up. A week off to regroup and heal followed by a splitable home series with Michigan. The B1G QF series at home vs a lower seed conference team is again...doable. I really love how the schedule lines up for us finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B1G and getting the extra series to refine things before the big tournament.
definitely doable and they look to be improving as a team, but they've only had sweeps against St Thomas, RMU, and OSU this year with all of those at home.
As far as finishing 2nd or 3rd, 5 teams in contention (sorry OSU and PSU)
Mich St 40 pts, 6 games left; home/away vs Mich, OSU, @WI
WI 35 pts 8 left; ND, OSU, @PSU, Mich St
MN 29 pts 6 left; PSU, @ND, Mich
ND 27 pts 6 left; @WI, MN, @Mich
Mich 25 pts 8 left; home/away vs Mich St, @PSU, ND, @MN
I just don't see any way we catch Mich State with a series left with OSU. Wisconsin having games in hand plus a series against OSU. Think it's probably going to come down to that last series vs Michigan who gets the 3 and who ends up at the 4. Don't think it'll matter a ton as it's likely to be ND or PSU you draw either way and they're going to probably be right around each other in the PWR. But agree especially with how the tournament is structured now, this team will probably benefit from not having another week off late given the late bye we have.
isn’t Michigan State in 1st place
They are, but by the eye test it seems like their play is slipping a bit. But the point stands on UW, whether it's the semi's or the final, would love to get another crack at them in Madison.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
Jess wrote a story on the waved off goals. He wanted to speak with the head of officials, but was told he was not available for interviews... Unbelievable
https://twitter.com/JessRMyers/status/1755244797864907197
Seeking clarification from the Big Ten office, we were told the coordinator of officials — Steve Piotrowski, who is a well-respected former college hockey player and a long-time on-ice official himself — would not be available for an on-the-record interview. The Rink Live later learned that the potential goal was disallowed due to goaltender interference, with Fernandez determining that Nelson’s contact with McClellan did not warrant a penalty, or an immediate stoppage of play, but was enough to later negate the puck in the net.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
Did Motzko register a complaint to the Big Ten over last weekends no goals?
Aloha!
Motzko's answer is the best. Anybody who knows hockey knows those are goals.
After watching the second non-goal, it's just hard to believe the refs called it no goal on the ice and refused to change it.
It's almost as hard to believe they reversed the on-ice goal call on the first one.
https://mndaily.com/281411/sports/a-full-circle-moment-matt-bryants-call-up-to-gophers-hockey/?utm_source=MN%20Daily%20News%20-%20Email%20Edition&utm_campaign=35b740dc0a-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_01_31_02_15&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-35b740dc0a- [LIST_EMAIL_ID]&fbclid=IwAR1pAtTX3Rwsv3ynth8e6chB6yROfWOpr5OvaWWVf53ePq5WkZ4J0T-FUW4
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
👆 Fun story, thanks for posting
Did Motzko register a complaint to the Big Ten over last weekends no goals?
UMN did reach out to the B10 and the response was that the official has room to make judgement on NCAA Rule 73 that governs goalie interference and uses a general rationale that "a goalkeeper should have the ability to move freely within the goal crease without being hindered by the actions of an attacking player."
If that attacking player is influenced by a defending player, then it's up to the official to decide how much. Sometimes it works out for Minnesota too.
https://twitter.com/GopherHockey/status/1061080799724912640
In this case the ref was going to call interference on the D for pushing Sheehy into the goalie before the goal happened. I don't see this one as a break for the Gophers. It was called the way it should have been called.
exactly.In this case the ref was going to call interference on the D for pushing Sheehy into the goalie before the goal happened. I don't see this one as a break for the Gophers. It was called the way it should have been called.
What's the difference between the Sheehy play above and the first no-goal involving Nelson?
exactly.In this case the ref was going to call interference on the D for pushing Sheehy into the goalie before the goal happened. I don't see this one as a break for the Gophers. It was called the way it should have been called.
What's the difference between the Sheehy play above and the first no-goal involving Nelson?
I mean he crosschecks Sheehy in the face/neck and directly into the goalie from right outside the crease. Clearly much more force and right at the point. There's a reason the D who hits him doesn't complain. I assume you're meaning the Mich St one. Nelson is hit farther from the crease and with less force (now this could be debatable as Farm Kid is just a big dude, so lesser skaters may have tumbled into the net which probably sells the call for interference and may have led to the goal standing) so ref is interpreting he could've altered course more. But these 2 really are not the same thing in watching them in my eyes, though I do think you should probably have a penalty on Mich St for the cross check/obstruction on Nelson
The Pairwise turntables keep on turning. This week 3 HE teams are 1 seeds thanks to the Gophers dropping the Badgers to the 2 line. Couple that with having one HE team that is a bid team on the 4 seed line and things get really weird. Would they send UND out east to UMass home regional to avoid the intra-conference 1st round matchup and not punish a one seed with having to play a game at another's "home" rink or say screw it and keep one of the Boston teams (BU given they have to protect the 1 overall) closer to home. Wonder how each teams' fan bases would feel about that (BU probably would want to draw a very weak RIT team in the first round over being closer to home would be my guess). Lots of weird/fun scenarios left to play out with the HE seeds, Omaha near the cutline as a host, a tiny rink in MO hosting a regional.
Anyone know when the pairwise probability matrix on CHN went live last year? Would be curious to see where MN lands but would have to imagine with a sweep this weekend they'd be getting awfully close to a lock. Probably need at least 3 more wins down the stretch.
20 wins is usually the benchmark historically. It doesn’t guarantee that you are in, but 20-win teams rarely miss the tourney in a league like the Big 10, NCHC or Hockey East. A sweep this weekend would bring us to 18 wins.
20 wins is usually the benchmark historically. It doesn’t guarantee that you are in, but 20-win teams rarely miss the tourney in a league like the Big 10, NCHC or Hockey East. A sweep this weekend would bring us to 18 wins.
yeah I guess that includes the kicker of not being swept in the first round with an additional 3 wins. Good point. And you’re spot on with the 20. Looks like highest that’s missed from the B10 was 22 from OSU and PSU and the gophers have only missed once since 2000 with 20 or more wins (had 20 that year).
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
The Pairwise turntables keep on turning. This week 3 HE teams are 1 seeds thanks to the Gophers dropping the Badgers to the 2 line. Couple that with having one HE team that is a bid team on the 4 seed line and things get really weird. Would they send UND out east to UMass home regional to avoid the intra-conference 1st round matchup and not punish a one seed with having to play a game at another's "home" rink or say screw it and keep one of the Boston teams (BU given they have to protect the 1 overall) closer to home. Wonder how each teams' fan bases would feel about that (BU probably would want to draw a very weak RIT team in the first round over being closer to home would be my guess). Lots of weird/fun scenarios left to play out with the HE seeds, Omaha near the cutline as a host, a tiny rink in MO hosting a regional.
Anyone know when the pairwise probability matrix on CHN went live last year? Would be curious to see where MN lands but would have to imagine with a sweep this weekend they'd be getting awfully close to a lock. Probably need at least 3 more wins down the stretch.
That regional they had MN (3) going to was Denver (2), BC (1), and Minnesota State Mankato (4).. that was definitely the toughest one, although Springfield looked tough as well.
https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-bracketology-v4
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GPL's Resident Cabin Enthusiast & Cadets Hockey Fan
The Pairwise turntables keep on turning. This week 3 HE teams are 1 seeds thanks to the Gophers dropping the Badgers to the 2 line. Couple that with having one HE team that is a bid team on the 4 seed line and things get really weird. Would they send UND out east to UMass home regional to avoid the intra-conference 1st round matchup and not punish a one seed with having to play a game at another's "home" rink or say screw it and keep one of the Boston teams (BU given they have to protect the 1 overall) closer to home. Wonder how each teams' fan bases would feel about that (BU probably would want to draw a very weak RIT team in the first round over being closer to home would be my guess). Lots of weird/fun scenarios left to play out with the HE seeds, Omaha near the cutline as a host, a tiny rink in MO hosting a regional.
Anyone know when the pairwise probability matrix on CHN went live last year? Would be curious to see where MN lands but would have to imagine with a sweep this weekend they'd be getting awfully close to a lock. Probably need at least 3 more wins down the stretch.
That regional they had MN (3) going to was Denver (2), BC (1), and Minnesota State Mankato (4).. that was definitely the toughest one, although Springfield looked tough as well.
https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-bracketology-v4
i like ECH, but imagine they'd flip the Maine/WI (or MN Denver pairing) regional to SF as they're going to want someone who's "close" for "attendance". Kind of funny that the CCHA with Kato being such a dominant team is on track to be the lowest seed in the bracket (provided AHA goes to RIT).
Here is Scott Wheeler's thoughts on Chesley from his Capitals prospects article.
5. Ryan Chesley, RHD, 19 (University of Minnesota)
Chesley was one of the more universally well-liked prospects in the 2022 draft among NHL folks and was a top prospect in the 2004 age group for years. Last year, he defended mostly well for the Golden Gophers in a depth role on a deep team, but also faced some challenges as he adjusted to the college level (he was also moved down USA’s lineup at his first world juniors). This year, though his production has been stagnant, he has taken on a much more prominent role, going from playing 17 minutes per game as a freshman to 22 minutes per game as a sophomore (he also played on USA’s top pairing at his second world juniors).
He plies his trade as a well-rounded, hard-shooting, honest and consistent two-way defender. I like him defensively in neutral ice, where he’s got a great stick and gaps up really well. His stick and sound positioning help him on blocks and breaking up plays. He does need to release from his spots with a little more urgency to get to pucks and close on plays sooner in the defensive zone at times, though (he can lose some races that he should have more of a jump on).
There’s a lot to work with, though. He can really rip it when he takes the five-to-eight feet available off of the line and looks for his own shot (which I’d like to see him do more often). He’s got balanced skating mechanics, good posture and an ability and willingness to defend with the body and stick, which help him defend at a very high level man-to-man. He’s effective, and there’s still some aggressiveness and (more) talent to his package, but his game lacks creativity and he’s got work to do to soften his skill. His statistical profile will likely need to take a step in order for him to get signed by the Capitals.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
Here is Scott Wheeler's thoughts on Chesley from his Capitals prospects article.
5. Ryan Chesley, RHD, 19 (University of Minnesota)
Chesley was one of the more universally well-liked prospects in the 2022 draft among NHL folks and was a top prospect in the 2004 age group for years. Last year, he defended mostly well for the Golden Gophers in a depth role on a deep team, but also faced some challenges as he adjusted to the college level (he was also moved down USA’s lineup at his first world juniors). This year, though his production has been stagnant, he has taken on a much more prominent role, going from playing 17 minutes per game as a freshman to 22 minutes per game as a sophomore (he also played on USA’s top pairing at his second world juniors).
He plies his trade as a well-rounded, hard-shooting, honest and consistent two-way defender. I like him defensively in neutral ice, where he’s got a great stick and gaps up really well. His stick and sound positioning help him on blocks and breaking up plays. He does need to release from his spots with a little more urgency to get to pucks and close on plays sooner in the defensive zone at times, though (he can lose some races that he should have more of a jump on).
There’s a lot to work with, though. He can really rip it when he takes the five-to-eight feet available off of the line and looks for his own shot (which I’d like to see him do more often). He’s got balanced skating mechanics, good posture and an ability and willingness to defend with the body and stick, which help him defend at a very high level man-to-man. He’s effective, and there’s still some aggressiveness and (more) talent to his package, but his game lacks creativity and he’s got work to do to soften his skill. His statistical profile will likely need to take a step in order for him to get signed by the Capitals.
sounds like he thinks Chesley is back next year, which I think would be the right call
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
So when the playoffs start I know number 1 in Big Ten gets a 1st round bye are the 1st round games played a 1 game series to move on to the second round?
Aloha!
So when the playoffs start I know number 1 in Big Ten gets a 1st round bye are the 1st round games played a 1 game series to move on to the second round?
All 1st round games are best of 3. Then the next 2 rounds are 1 game playoffs.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
So when the playoffs start I know number 1 in Big Ten gets a 1st round bye are the 1st round games played a 1 game series to move on to the second round?
All 1st round games are best of 3. Then the next 2 rounds are 1 game playoffs.
so if the standings stay the same Gophers will host Penn State or Michigan?
Aloha!
So when the playoffs start I know number 1 in Big Ten gets a 1st round bye are the 1st round games played a 1 game series to move on to the second round?
All 1st round games are best of 3. Then the next 2 rounds are 1 game playoffs.
so if the standings stay the same Gophers will host Penn State or Michigan?
If the season ended today yes we would host Penn State for a Best of 3.
Which BTW hope that Fox9/ + will pick up the TV because BTN is completely full with the women's BB tournament and men's BB that weekend so you won't get any hockey there.
So when the playoffs start I know number 1 in Big Ten gets a 1st round bye are the 1st round games played a 1 game series to move on to the second round?
All 1st round games are best of 3. Then the next 2 rounds are 1 game playoffs.
so if the standings stay the same Gophers will host Penn State or Michigan?
it's almost a lock we're getting PSU in the first round provided we don't get swept this weekend by ND (99% likely we can't catch MSU and WI is a long shot) or some real weird stuff happens.
Mich St: 46 points; 12 pts remaining so max 58 (OSU, @WI)
WI: 41 points; 18 pts remaining so max 59 (@OSU, @PSU, Mich St)
MN: 35 points; 12 pts remaining so max 47 (@ND, MI)
ND: 27 points; 12 pts remaining so max 39 (MN, @MI)
MI: 25 points; 18 pts remaining so max 43 (@PSU, ND, @MN)
PSU: 17 points; 18 pts remaining so max 35 (MI, WI, @OSU)
OSU: 7 points; 18 pts remaining so max 25 (WI, @Mich St, PSU)
One win this weekend and cannot be caught by ND. PSU would likely need to sweep MI this weekend on the road to catch MI. Probably will be mostly set after this weekend aside from who's hosting between ND-MI and who gets the bye (WI or Mich St) after this weekend.
I wonder if Michigan State and Wisconsin will try to intentionally lose the last weekend of the regular season to avoid the dastardly bye for being the one seed.
I wonder if Michigan State and Wisconsin will try to intentionally lose the last weekend of the regular season to avoid the dastardly bye for being the one seed.
Seeing as both programs have been lacking in the banner department for the last decade and change, I don’t think you’ll have to worry about that lol.
Minnesota looks like a different team the second time through league play. They are limiting their mistakes, and they are playing a 200-foot game. I think this is a good formula for this team, and it's a good fit for the Nelson line.
It also works for high-end players like Snuggy, Huglen, Moore, Kurth, and Pitlick, all of whom can play that grinding defensive game and pounce on loose pucks. The fourth line seems to have found their game as well.
This squad won't want to get into a track meet with teams like Boston U so it's nice to see they found their footing by keeping the opposition off the board. They remind me a little bit of that Denver team that beat the purple moo cows--grinding but talented.
I love the fact the overall team defense seems on point even at central ice and they force a lot of shots from the outside. And of course the Closer. Coupled with their ability to score off the transition it all makes for a deadly combination against all sorts of opposition.
If the coaching staff makes the right decisions (for as much as they can control) I like this team in a one and done format.
Pairwise probability matrix just went live for those who are psychos like me and like to look at it and track it.
Gophers listed as a lock for the tournament based on simulations with a seed line around 6-10. Mich St and WI also locks. No one else from the Big Ten favored to make the tournament.
What does MI have to do to make it, or do they need help regardless?
Good for Huglen
https://twitter.com/GopherHockey/status/1757442866039730542?s=20
What does MI have to do to make it, or do they need help regardless?
Hard to know exactly, but they are in big trouble. That last weekend at Mariucci will be exciting.
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php
Win more games, likely just that simple for them. They're currently at 15, so, just outside looking in with the Auto-bids taking 14/15/16.What does MI have to do to make it, or do they need help regardless?
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
Yeah I figured winning more games was a given part of it. 😉
With teams having 4-8 regular season games left (Hockey East and NCHC have only two weeks of playoffs so they have 4 regular season weekends left) plus conference playoffs there are too many games left to say what Michigan needs to do to in terms of number of wins to get an at large berth especially when we don't know what Pairwise ranking number will get the last at large spot.
We know that the CCHA and Atlantic playoff champions will take spots away from #16 and #15 but the question is how many of the Big Ten, NCHC, Hockey East, and ECAC playoff champions are below #14 where they knock out Pairwise #14, #13, etc.
Based on what the matrix is currently showing it appears to be using #13 as the last at large spot. If this turns out to be true Michigan would need to move up two spots from #15 to #13 so they would need to win more games down the stretch than two of the teams ahead of them.
The Michigan/Gopher series will likely be big for Michigan's at large hopes.
Michigan will almost certainly need to win the first round series of the Big Ten playoffs likely against Notre Dame and depending on how they do over their last 6 regular season game and how the 5 teams (U Mass, Western Michigan, Providence, St. Cloud, Cornell) ahead of them do they might have to win a semifinal road game against Wisconsin or Michigan State.
Michigan's last 6 regular season games are
2 at #23 Penn State
2 home against #21 Notre Dame
2 at #8 Minnesota
They probably need to go at least 4-2 and have some of the teams ahead of them struggle a bite to stay in contention for an at large berth.
Going 5-1 would definitely improve their chances and might be needed.
The interesting thing is Michigan played U Mass, Providence, and St Cloud in non conference games this season going 3-2-1 with 4 of the 6 games on the road so I think it is fair to say they are as good or better then teams that are in position to keep them out of the NCAA tournament.
Home split against U Mass
Road split with Providence
Road win and tie against St. Cloud
Michigan is currently behind these teams because they are 2-7-1 against Wisconsin, Michigan St, and the Gophers.
They are 12-4-2 against everybody else.
The Big Ten would improve their chances of getting 4 teams into the NCCA tournament if they added an 8th team. Having only 7 teams makes it more difficult for the 4th team to get enough wins since half of their conference schedule is against the top 3 teams in the conference.
U Mass and Providence have only 6 or 8 games against BC, BU, and Maine (Hockey East has 11 teams) while Michigan plays 12 games against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota.
U Mass is 0-1-1 against BU (haven't played BC or Maine). They have a home and home series against BC and a road series against Maine left.
Providence is 2-3-0 against BC and Maine (one of the wins was in the 3 on 3 OT) with 3 games left against BU.
Michigan's last 6 regular season games are
2 at #23 Penn State
2 home against #21 Notre Dame
2 at #8 Minnesota
They probably need to go at least 4-2 and have some of the teams ahead of them struggle a bite to stay in contention for an at large berth.
Going 5-1 would definitely improve their chances and might be needed.
i think the issue with pushing the AL for Michigan move is that they’ve got to go up 2 spots. Think they need to go 5-1 to slide up at all given who they play given losses (splits) to PSU or ND will drop their RPI and getting swept by MN will erase sweeping the prior 2.
Add to that that it’s for sure 2 auto bids this year make it almost sure fire they’re going to need a 5-1 finish plus a first round tournament sweep to have a chance unless Cornell implodes, no one or two nchc teams that are close to them win more than half their games, and you get a postseason that’s real chalky
Michigan's last 6 regular season games are
2 at #23 Penn State
2 home against #21 Notre Dame
2 at #8 Minnesota
They probably need to go at least 4-2 and have some of the teams ahead of them struggle a bite to stay in contention for an at large berth.
Going 5-1 would definitely improve their chances and might be needed.
Even for a team loaded with talent, that's a mountain to climb--and they have to hope that there aren't any low-seed, surprise tournament winners in the other conferences, such as the one the Fighting Hawks play in, or even the Big 10.
This is like falling off a cliff for Michigan, considering their position last season. It could get down to them needing a Big 10 Tournament title.