Well, I think the forecast of an inch of rain around my area is not going to happen. We are down to a prediction of .14 today and I have my doubts if we even get any. Our next chance is now later next week.
Our forecast just went from an inch to a tenth. I wonder what NWS was smoking last night?
it's not hard to understand if you look at the models. It's a complicated system we've had all summer so far. The jet stream hasn't behaved as normal due to El Niño. You'll see a ton of instances throughout June where storms were coming from anywhere between the the south and east.
instead of the normal cold air coming down from Canada to precipitate the moisture from the gulf or pacific, we've had no cold air masses that converged at the same time as the hot wet air from the south.
These aren't fronts and systems they're sporadic downbursts which are difficult to model
If you want a half decent forecast you can see yourself, find the College of DuPage's weather page and use that. It's the most up to date and comprehensive source I've found.
As someone whose livelihood is greatly controlled by the weather that I can't control, I realize that predicting the weather is like herding cats, especially trying to forecast the weather near the Buffalo Ridge. I normally take weather forecasts with a grain of salt, and any prediction of less than a 60% chance of rain, I usually think it's not going to rain. Last night, as Norm said ( as we both live in outstate Mn ) the consensus from multiple meteorologists was the chance for rain was well over 75% with the expectation of a good amount of rain. With the fact that there really hasn't been the traditional fronts of rain that move from west to east covering a large area this year I was optimistic of a nice soaking. I will certainly look at the page you suggested and add it to the half dozen sources that I already use. Until we get a good rain, this will be me...
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
I can only imagine our new ever changing climate and the extremes we see more of are making weather forecasting a lot more challenging/impossible. It seems lately every chance of rain literally just dries up.
our rain gage is busted but we had a pretty good soaking here in AV last Saturday. The wind and rain knocked ALL those damn cluster things off the oak trees onto the deck, into the pool, and all over the outdoor furniture I had just pulled out and cleaned the night before.
Well, I think the forecast of an inch of rain around my area is not going to happen. We are down to a prediction of .14 today and I have my doubts if we even get any. Our next chance is now later next week.
Our forecast just went from an inch to a tenth. I wonder what NWS was smoking last night?
it's not hard to understand if you look at the models. It's a complicated system we've had all summer so far. The jet stream hasn't behaved as normal due to El Niño. You'll see a ton of instances throughout June where storms were coming from anywhere between the the south and east.
instead of the normal cold air coming down from Canada to precipitate the moisture from the gulf or pacific, we've had no cold air masses that converged at the same time as the hot wet air from the south.
These aren't fronts and systems they're sporadic downbursts which are difficult to model
If you want a half decent forecast you can see yourself, find the College of DuPage's weather page and use that. It's the most up to date and comprehensive source I've found.
As someone whose livelihood is greatly controlled by the weather that I can't control, I realize that predicting the weather is like herding cats, especially trying to forecast the weather near the Buffalo Ridge. I normally take weather forecasts with a grain of salt, and any prediction of less than a 60% chance of rain, I usually think it's not going to rain. Last night, as Norm said ( as we both live in outstate Mn ) the consensus from multiple meteorologists was the chance for rain was well over 75% with the expectation of a good amount of rain. With the fact that there really hasn't been the traditional fronts of rain that move from west to east covering a large area this year I was optimistic of a nice soaking. I will certainly look at the page you suggested and add it to the half dozen sources that I already use. Until we get a good rain, this will be me...
fair enough. The COD webpage lets your roll through model runs chronologically to see the trend.
I drove through some heavy spots of rain on my way to and from softball yesterday (down in lovely Elgin, MN) on highway 52 and it looked like it was going to be pouring up here in the south metro. Then I got here and we had 0 rain drops the rest of the night.
It rained like a MOFO west of Wassau on Sunday. Bad enough that traffic had to slow down to 40mph or so, just to see (wipers were not wiping away the rain quickly enough). That stretch of rain lasted about 15 miles or so, ranging from drizzle to torrential.
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
Two hours ago there was a large green blob headed our way on the radar. I was waiting for it to rain so I could go for a run and not die of heatstroke. It rained a whopping five seconds here and now the sun is poking out. ?
This morning’s forecast predicted 1.25” of rain. It’s been decreasing through the day. We’re now down to 0.25” of rain and it appears that is IF this evening’s storms fit up over Blaine and not east of us.
This morning’s forecast predicted 1.25” of rain. It’s been decreasing through the day. We’re now down to 0.25” of rain and it appears that is IF this evening’s storms fit up over Blaine and not east of us.
bone dry
As of Thursday night the NWS had us at 100% chance of 2 inches for Friday/Sat. We got .25
Per a friend, Mankato had a tornado warning about an hour ago or so. And frankly, despite the radar I just checked, I feel something is coming. The air isn't quite right when I step outside.
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
We’ve had a little thunder…..a little lightning….for the last hour. Has finally started raining in AV. It may just be a slow drizzle, but it’s raining fo shizzle!
too bad I don’t have a working rain gage.
edit; and a few minutes later, the sun comes out. But it’s still raining.
We’ve had a little thunder…..a little lightning….for the last hour. Has finally started raining in AV. It may just be a slow drizzle, but it’s raining fo shizzle!
too bad I don’t have a working rain gage.
Ok, so I am not the only one. I thought I heard thunder in the distance.
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
We got poured on at softball tonight for a couple pretty good stretches. IDK what the total rainfall accumulation was but it was heavy rain for 40ish minutes.
And, total for the weekend, 1.75 inches starting late Friday night, up through this morning. Pretty close to the forecast, just offset by part of a day.
I ended up with .40 for this weekend. I have not had a rain event ( 2 days combined ) with a total of over an inch of rain since April 19th, and that day I had an inch of rain followed by snow the next day. The ground is rock hard as I put the posts up for the electric fence around the sweet corn patch today (to keep out the raccoons) and they went in hard. The forecast doesn't look promising here for the next week, although the temps have cooled a bit to the low 80's here. It still isn't as dry here as last year, but you can tell the sandy spots are starting to burn up.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
I ended up with .40 for this weekend. I have not had a rain event ( 2 days combined ) with a total of over an inch of rain since April 19th, and that day I had an inch of rain followed by snow the next day. The ground is rock hard as I put the posts up for the electric fence around the sweet corn patch today (to keep out the raccoons) and they went in hard. The forecast doesn't look promising here for the next week, although the temps have cooled a bit to the low 80's here. It still isn't as dry here as last year, but you can tell the sandy spots are starting to burn up.
Ditto here. So far it's a carbon copy of last year. A late spring delayed planting, then it turned dry. (we got .5 over the weekend.)
I was in Chicago yesterday. I was told today they set a new record for rainfall in a day and they did that by noon. Somehow they still played baseball at Wrigley and completed the NASCAR race. Pretty amazing.
Headed to the Twins game tomorrow. Last one I went to (or tried to attend) was rained out. Worried about tomorrow, but it's not SUPPOSED to rain until after the game. I don't wanna blow $20 for nothing, on something I prob won't be able to get back to.
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
@the-rube get down there and have some beers and if a game happens, good. If not sell your ticket for the make up game on StubHub.
that said, I was sweating it for our Cubs game. We spent over $500 for the 4 of us. A good chunk of that was fees. I would have likely eaten $100 or more trying to resell the tickets as we wouldn’t be able to go to a make up date.
@the-rube get down there and have some beers and if a game happens, good. If not sell your ticket for the make up game on StubHub.
that said, I was sweating it for our Cubs game. We spent over $500 for the 4 of us. A good chunk of that was fees. I would have likely eaten $100 or more trying to resell the tickets as we wouldn’t be able to go to a make up date.
One of the people I'm going with would prob just buy it from me; they'd easily find someone else to take it.
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
@the-rube get down there and have some beers and if a game happens, good. If not sell your ticket for the make up game on StubHub.
that said, I was sweating it for our Cubs game. We spent over $500 for the 4 of us. A good chunk of that was fees. I would have likely eaten $100 or more trying to resell the tickets as we wouldn’t be able to go to a make up date.
One of the people I'm going with would prob just buy it from me; they'd easily find someone else to take it.
Rained pre-game, then nothing. Knew a bartender at the Gray Duck Bar, got some discounted drinks (that Bomba Juice is delicious), and better yet, a friend of a friend in the group I was with upgraded us to a suite:
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
Some very nasty storms rolling through Mn tonight. I got small small hail and .15 of rain, but they really blew up after they went past here. The Farm Kids home town got large hail.
Got 30 seconds of rain by Ridgedale, but the skies are angry. Buddy in Shorewood said it's raining like a mofo, so we'll see what happens. I'm directly east of him (about 15 minutes travel time), but there is a lot of water between here and there. 😉
When you tell somebody somethin', it depends on what part of the United States you're standin' in... as to just how dumb you are.
Really started to come down in the mighty midway about ten minutes and still a nice soaker. dying now.
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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