Interestingly, the PWR Probability for the Gophers didn't change after this weekend's games. Still at 78% for the #1 and 22% for the #2 overall.
There's just too many moving parts to try to figure things out until after this coming weekend. QU closed up by 0.0020 or so in the RPI last week, even though both the Qs and Gophers were idle.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
Interestingly, the PWR Probability for the Gophers didn't change after this weekend's games. Still at 78% for the #1 and 22% for the #2 overall.
There's just too many moving parts to try to figure things out until after this coming weekend. QU closed up by 0.0020 or so in the RPI last week, even though both the Qs and Gophers were idle.
I would assume a win on Saturday must almost lock up the #1 overall seed, no?
I'd think so, but there may be something I'm just not seeing in the math here.Interestingly, the PWR Probability for the Gophers didn't change after this weekend's games. Still at 78% for the #1 and 22% for the #2 overall.
There's just too many moving parts to try to figure things out until after this coming weekend. QU closed up by 0.0020 or so in the RPI last week, even though both the Qs and Gophers were idle.
I would assume a win on Saturday must almost lock up the #1 overall seed, no?
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
I agree. The Gophers will only be playing top 16 teams, The should do OK with a win. Q is the only team with a chance to catch. They play #53, Yale. They won't gain much winning. The next round they (at best) play #30 St. Lawrence. A loss would kill their chances. It looks like they have three more single elimination (?) games. It's hard to tell if they can pick up that much. ( I don't think so (All predicated on MN beating MSU))I'd think so, but there may be something I'm just not seeing in the math here.Interestingly, the PWR Probability for the Gophers didn't change after this weekend's games. Still at 78% for the #1 and 22% for the #2 overall.
There's just too many moving parts to try to figure things out until after this coming weekend. QU closed up by 0.0020 or so in the RPI last week, even though both the Qs and Gophers were idle.
I would assume a win on Saturday must almost lock up the #1 overall seed, no?
ECAC is best of 3 this coming weekend with the 4 team tournament the following weekend. I'd have to think that either a Gopher win v MSU or a QU loss against either Yale in the best of 3 or in the conference Semifinal game would lock the Gophers into the #1. I'm just surprised QU actually narrowed the gap a bit this last weekend with both teams being off.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
For the #1 seed my hunch is the biggest X factor affecting the Gophers Pairwise Standing is actually where Notre Dame ends the season. Notre Dame is currently at #19 RPI and if they fall out of the top 20 they would stop providing the gophers with the Quality Win Bonus (QWB) for the 3 regular season Gopher wins vs the Irish. (The Top 20 teams give QWB points)
This makes sense to me because the odds have not shifted much at all after the Gophers sweep of Ohio, so perhaps the biggest variable is not the gophers results but where other teams land in the final standings. Not sure how to test for this so its just a hunch.
- North Dakota moving into the top 20 would give the Gophers one additional QWB (Defiantly cant cheer for that)
- While the worst case Scenario is RIT & Connecticut pass the Irish and the gophers lose 3 QWB
Well deserved for Cooley. He has been absurd.
https://twitter.com/gopherhockey/status/1633156020309487630?s=46&t=UtlPiq7Vt1Te97QT76L7LQ
https://twitter.com/miketgould/status/1632844589697744896?s=46&t=636rgs1OB6K99n4EGVH7CA
If you didn’t think this was gonna happen from the moment he committed here a year ago then I don’t know what to tell you.
Now let’s win one while he’s still here!!
https://twitter.com/miketgould/status/1632844589697744896?s=46&t=636rgs1OB6K99n4EGVH7CA
If you didn’t think this was gonna happen from the moment he committed here a year ago then I don’t know what to tell you.
Now let’s win one while he’s still here!!
Lateral Move.
I was hopeful he didn't want to deal with the dumpster fire that is the Coyotes, but I certainly can't say I'll be surprised if he leaves.If you didn’t think this was gonna happen from the moment he committed here a year ago then I don’t know what to tell you.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
Damn. Can't say I am shocked
https://twitter.com/miketgould/status/1632844589697744896?s=46&t=636rgs1OB6K99n4EGVH7CA
If you didn’t think this was gonna happen from the moment he committed here a year ago then I don’t know what to tell you.
Now let’s win one while he’s still here!!
Clearly a demotion.
Fixed your post. ?
Season numbers
Gophers - 34 games played, 25 wins
Coyotes - 62 games played, 21 wins
Well at least he will get to play in front of bigger home crowds.
Gophers 9,099
Coyotes 4,600
Oh wait never mind. ?
BTW, I am just having some fun showing the numbers. Cools leaving after one year is not surprising. I've enjoyed his play this season and hope he has great success in the NHL. #GopherPride
BTW, I doubt it was a just a coincidence that Cools had the lacrosse style goal when facing Arizona State. Got to show off when you are at your about to be new home. ?
Wonder if he’s stopped going to class
Gophers all over the board
https://twitter.com/gopherhockey/status/1633531699366617097?s=46&t=UtlPiq7Vt1Te97QT76L7LQ
Here's my take on who will win the awards (not that anyone asked..)
POY - Knies
DPOY - Hughes
GOY - Close
ROY - Fantilli
COY - Nightengale
I think Bischel has a shot at GOY only because the number of shots he has faced is ridiculous. He has 410 more saves than Close. Man, did the ND defense leave him hanging all year...Granted, he played in 6 more games than Close, but still.
I suspect Fantilli will win Player of the Year and Cooley will win Rookie of the Year.
I suspect Fantilli will win Player of the Year and Cooley will win Rookie of the Year.
You're likely right. But I like the stat for Game Winning Goals in the B1G Conference. Four of the Top Five are Gophers and Knies is crushing the field. I don't see Fantilli....
| 1 | Knies, Matthew (Minnesota) | 7 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cooley, Logan (Minnesota) | 5 | |
| 3 | Nelson, Jaxon (Minnesota) | 4 | |
| 4 | Adams, Jack (Notre Dame) | 4 | |
| 5 | Snuggerud, Jimmy (Minnesota) | 3 | |
| 6 | Duke, Tyler (Ohio State) | 3 | |
| 7 | Singleton, Tate (Ohio State) | 3 | |
| 8 | Guzzo, Patrick (Ohio State) | 3 | |
| 9 | Brindley, Gavin (Michigan) | 3 | |
| 10 | Hughes, T.J. (Michigan) | 3 |
I suspect Fantilli will win Player of the Year and Cooley will win Rookie of the Year.
You're likely right. But I like the stat for Game Winning Goals in the B1G Conference. Four of the Top Five are Gophers and Knies is crushing the field. I don't see Fantilli....
1 Knies, Matthew (Minnesota) 7 2 Cooley, Logan (Minnesota) 5 3 Nelson, Jaxon (Minnesota) 4 4 Adams, Jack (Notre Dame) 4 5 Snuggerud, Jimmy (Minnesota) 3 6 Duke, Tyler (Ohio State) 3 7 Singleton, Tate (Ohio State) 3 8 Guzzo, Patrick (Ohio State) 3 9 Brindley, Gavin (Michigan) 3 10 Hughes, T.J. (Michigan) 3
I wonder if the typical voter employs that nuanced of an analysis.
Although Fantilli leads the B1G conference in total points, it should also be considered there is more to this game than scoring. Michigan won on 12 games compared to Minnesota's 19. Michigan outscored their B1G opponents by 3 goals, while Minnesota outscored their B1G opponents by 56 goals.
Hopefully when they consider these awards they look at how complete a player is. Five of the top six in +/- are Gophers.
I agree with your logic. I was just stating what I suspect will happen.
BTW, the Gophers out scoring their opponents by 56 goals (an average of 2.3 goals per game) in Big Ten conference play is absolutely nuts. This team is crazy good.
I suspect Fantilli will win Player of the Year and Cooley will win Rookie of the Year.
You're likely right. But I like the stat for Game Winning Goals in the B1G Conference. Four of the Top Five are Gophers and Knies is crushing the field. I don't see Fantilli....
1 Knies, Matthew (Minnesota) 7 2 Cooley, Logan (Minnesota) 5 3 Nelson, Jaxon (Minnesota) 4 4 Adams, Jack (Notre Dame) 4 5 Snuggerud, Jimmy (Minnesota) 3 6 Duke, Tyler (Ohio State) 3 7 Singleton, Tate (Ohio State) 3 8 Guzzo, Patrick (Ohio State) 3 9 Brindley, Gavin (Michigan) 3 10 Hughes, T.J. (Michigan) 3
Knies has more game winning goals in Big Ten play than the whole BADgers team. ?
Yeah it’s be one thing if we were talking about the B1G of yesteryear but you have 4 teams that are almost a lock to make the tourney. Outscoring your conference opponents by 53 in one of the best conferences in the NCAA is impressive.
The fun thing about awards season is all the local media coming to the table for the team they see the most.
https://twitter.com/m_bultman/status/1633549826343174145
https://twitter.com/ConnorEaregood/status/1633530869343469569
https://twitter.com/JD_Jerbear/status/1633543142359064577
https://twitter.com/bradlaplante/status/1633537146039533569
I suspect Fantilli will win Player of the Year and Cooley will win Rookie of the Year.
Fantilli isn’t nominated for that award
Wow, that last one. If you want to argue that Bischel is better than Close, ok, maybe. He's got a better save % (higher GAA, of course).
St. Cyr is worse in both GAA and Save% than either Bischel or Close, so, saying he's been better than Close all year is absurd.
As to Dobes, he's worse than Close in both GAA and SV% (but also ahead of St Cyr)
Yes, I tend to lean toward Gophers, but when making these kind of arguments, shouldn't they be expected to take a glance at the actual numbers?
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
One could argue u-mi won despite its coach.
“When your best friend is the son of God, you get tired of losing every argument.”
― Christopher Moore, Lamb: The Gospel According to Biff, Christ's Childhood Pal
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When a team wins the league by the margin the Gophers did, they should dominate the awards. I know some will say Bob doesn't deserve COY, but keeping all of the "all stars" rowing in the same direction deserves some credit.
I just think we should just go with who Pat the Rat gave his awards to.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
Homer or not, I think his list is solid. The Gophers dominated the conference, they should dominate the individual awards too.I just think we should just go with who Pat the Rat gave his awards to.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
Gophers all over the board
https://twitter.com/gopherhockey/status/1633531699366617097?s=46&t=UtlPiq7Vt1Te97QT76L7LQ
only one I’d not say it should be the Gopher for would be Fantilli over Cooley. Fantilli has gross stats that he threw up against WI helping to elevate things and it’s going to carry him, but also hard to argue with the leading scorer in conference winning something. Hughes may get the vote over faber but definitely shouldn’t. Bischel I could also see the argument over Close
When a team wins the league by the margin the Gophers did, they should dominate the awards. I know some will say Bob doesn't deserve COY, but keeping all of the "all stars" rowing in the same direction deserves some credit.
I just think we should just go with who Pat the Rat gave his awards to.
I don’t see how anyone could not vote Motzko for COTY.
When a team wins the league by the margin the Gophers did, they should dominate the awards. I know some will say Bob doesn't deserve COY, but keeping all of the "all stars" rowing in the same direction deserves some credit.
I just think we should just go with who Pat the Rat gave his awards to.
I don’t see how anyone could not vote Motzko for COTY.
I mean I wouldn’t. Nightangale has to be the favorite, no?
I've got Granato atop my allot
The thing I find interesting about coach of the year is it often goes to the coach whose team over achieved. On the college level this seems funny to me since coaches who recruit really well almost by definition can't have teams that over achieve (they are suppose to win). So then Motzko gets punished for being a great recruiter when at the college level that is the most important part of the job. ?
The thing I find interesting about coach of the year is it often goes to the coach whose team over achieved. On the college level this seems funny to me since coaches who recruit really well almost by definition can't have teams that over achieve (they are suppose to win). So then Motzko gets punished for being a great recruiter when at the college level that is the most important part of the job. ?
Here's the thing - Michigan this year and perhaps even last year, the many Boston teams that Eeyore coveted through the years, etc. - are all examples that great recruiting doesn't always equate to great success.
Yeah, Motzko recruited really well (which I agree with you should be considered a positive attribute when assessing how the coach did) - but to get a team of high recruits all with eqos of some degree, some who might logically be thinking about a paycheck instead of competing with their teammates, to find the right line combos, the right special teams units, usage of your goalies, managing injuries, etc., none of which happens automatically in a bubble - to gel so well they lap the field by miles?
What's the more compelling argument for Nightengale. I very well could be missing it completely.
He turned around a bad team in a year (36th in the pairwise last year). I think the gophers beat them this weekend and likely end their NCAA hopes but if not that’d also add to the narrative.
That’s not to say I think Motzko is less deserving, he has more to work with obviously but the team has been historically dominant in conference play.
I don't think taking a team from last to 5th is necessarily more impressive than what the Gophers have done. I certainly don't argue he's not worthy, but to me it feels like as much of a sentimental pick as anything. But not a big deal to me if he wins because I think there's a legit case for it.
I think the biggest argument for Nightengale is that he took a team that was a dumpster fire for years and brought them back to respectability in the mid-tier. Being 5th in the B1G isn't the accomplishment, being in the top 15 for most of the season in the Pairwise is.
Why are you only looking at conference standings in a stacked conference with a historically good team at the top? Like Joe said looking at the entire picture what he did was impressive.I don't think taking a team from last to 5th is necessarily more impressive than what the Gophers have done. I certainly don't argue he's not worthy, but to me it feels like as much of a sentimental pick as anything. But not a big deal to me if he wins because I think there's a legit case for it.
Also, while they were 5th in the conference, this year, that means they were a game and a half out of 2nd place.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
That's great - I still think what the Gophers did vs. what you all describe as a stacked conference is equally as impressive. However as I noted there's def an argument to be made for Nightengale.
The thing I find interesting about coach of the year is it often goes to the coach whose team over achieved. On the college level this seems funny to me since coaches who recruit really well almost by definition can't have teams that over achieve (they are suppose to win). So then Motzko gets punished for being a great recruiter when at the college level that is the most important part of the job. ?
Here's the thing - Michigan this year and perhaps even last year, the many Boston teams that Eeyore coveted through the years, etc. - are all examples that great recruiting doesn't always equate to great success.
Yeah, Motzko recruited really well (which I agree with you should be considered a positive attribute when assessing how the coach did) - but to get a team of high recruits all with eqos of some degree, some who might logically be thinking about a paycheck instead of competing with their teammates, to find the right line combos, the right special teams units, usage of your goalies, managing injuries, etc., none of which happens automatically in a bubble - to gel so well they lap the field by miles?
What's the more compelling argument for Nightengale. I very well could be missing it completely.
For me it’s cause he not only resurrected a team but an entire program in one year. They were not supposed to be competitive this year. They frankly don’t have the horses for it. I also think Gophers winning all the other awards might factor into it?. Might want to mix it up. ?
Why are you only looking at conference standings in a stacked conference with a historically good team at the top? Like Joe said looking at the entire picture what he did was impressive.I don't think taking a team from last to 5th is necessarily more impressive than what the Gophers have done. I certainly don't argue he's not worthy, but to me it feels like as much of a sentimental pick as anything. But not a big deal to me if he wins because I think there's a legit case for it.
Except it is easy to be a better PWR team when the conference as a whole is the best. MSU may have had the numbers to be a Top 15 team but I wouldn't say they actually were one. They are an OK team in a great conference.
(I don't care who wins COTY)
I do think Motzko deserves COTY, but turning around the former dumpster fire in East Lansing means I wouldn't be shocked if Nightingale gets it. Rohlik I think is just there because they always have three finalists, nobody but Motzko or Nightingale should be a serious candidate.
B1G refs... corrupt, or just incompetent?
There definitely can be arguments for both coaches. For me, Nightingale gets props for most improved, but I give tBob the nod for best coach. Bob had huge expectations after last year, and he lost a ton of talent from graduates to transfers, and brought in 11 freshmen who had to play big roles ( except for the 3rd string goalie ). MSU had 6 freshmen and is an older team. Although, like some, it won't surprise me if Nightingale wins it. It is always tough to figure out how the voters think sometimes or what their biases are. Perfect example is the Heise Kaz snub.
I'm 50% factual and 50% sarcastic. When you get to know me, you will know which is which.
Michigan State is improved, but they are still tied for 6th in the B1G (out of 7 teams).
Yeah I don’t disagree with any of this it’s just a year ago they would’ve been below Wisconsin and nowhere near 15th in the pairwise. The turnaround by that coach in only a year is impressive that’s all.Why are you only looking at conference standings in a stacked conference with a historically good team at the top? Like Joe said looking at the entire picture what he did was impressive.I don't think taking a team from last to 5th is necessarily more impressive than what the Gophers have done. I certainly don't argue he's not worthy, but to me it feels like as much of a sentimental pick as anything. But not a big deal to me if he wins because I think there's a legit case for it.
Except it is easy to be a better PWR team when the conference as a whole is the best. MSU may have had the numbers to be a Top 15 team but I wouldn't say they actually were one. They are an OK team in a great conference.
(I don't care who wins COTY)