Vegoe’s Top 20 – 3/3/2025

The end of the season is rapidly approaching and it’s fairly clear that the top three teams this season have been Boston College, Minnesota and Michigan State. The Gophers and Spartans ended the regular season as co-champs in the Big Ten and the Eagles have a four point lead in Hockey East over Maine headed into the final weekend of their regular season. The three programs have essentially guaranteed themselves No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. CHN’s Pairwise Probability Matrix indicates there is a three percent chance of the Gophers getting the fifth seed and a half percent chance of getting the sixth seed.

The team that gets the last No. 1 seed for the tournament likely comes down to Maine and Western Michigan. The Black Bears swept Vermont last weekend and have been one of the best defensive teams in the country allowing just 1.8 goals against per game, tied for second nationally, and 24.3 shots against per game, ranking fifth nationally. The Broncos won their first ever Penrose Cup by defeating North Dakota last Friday 6-4 and Pat Ferschwiler will lead his team into the postseason for the fourth consecutive year. Western Michigan is tied with Minnesota for the least number of regulation losses (four) as they’ve gotten great goaltending from Cameron Rowe and Hampton Slukynsky. Brad Schlossman also pointed out in his preview of last weekend’s series that Western Michigan’s defensive corps is a veteran group that’s been built up over the years for this moment.

The middle of the top 20 is looking pretty consistent this season and there’s not much movement to report and it looks like the bubble for making the tournament comes after Michigan right now. PlayoffStatus.com is putting the cut line for a berth at the top 13 and their last two teams in right now are Massachusetts (78%), Quinnipiac (60%) and the first four teams out right now are Penn State (41%), UMass-Lowell (24%) and Arizona State (25%).

The Nittany Lions jumped a bit in the PWR with their series against the Gophers and their upcoming series with Michigan will be crucial in determining if the B10 gets four teams into the tournament. The Sun Devils probably hurt themselves a bit this past weekend by splitting with Omaha. The Mavericks sit 27th in the PWR, but third in the NCHC and are always going to be dangerous with Simon Latkoczy between the pipes.

After a disastrous January where they dropped games to Northern Michigan, Michigan Tech, Ferris State and St. Thomas, Minnesota State hasn’t lost a game since and won their ninth MacNaughton Cup. The Mavericks from Mankato have their eyes on another NCAA Tournament appearance, but they’ll have to win the CCHA tournament to get there.

The team coming out of Atlantic Hockey is going to be a tough out this year. Holy Cross and Sacred Heart have separated themselves from the pack with strong second halves. Holy Cross has only lost one game in regulation since January and Sacred Heart has only lost two in regulation.

The big regular season game this week should be UMass-Lowell fighting for its postseason life against New Hampshire and the big conference tournament game of the week will be Penn State at Michigan.