Portal Forum General Other Sports MN Wild 2021-22 Season Reply To: MN Wild 2021-22 Season

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gopheritall wrote:

Fleury isn’t the player he used to be. Not sure he gives us a better chance that what we have. Seems to me like it would be a name brand trade. I just see that being the piece that puts us over the top.

What the Wild have in Talbot is a poor goalie. Kahkonen is a solid back up right now if you have the starter.

Analytically, though, the Wild’s defense has shown it’s good enough that it only needs average goaltending to win. Talbot entered Saturday’s game with a .907 save percentage, but that pales in comparison to the .920 he’s expected to have. It’s a big difference from last season, when he was at .915 and expected to be at .915.

One way to look at the performance of the Wild’s goaltenders is GSAx, which accounts for their workload against (in terms of quantity and quality shots, not shooting talent, via Evolving-Hockey), with expected goals compared to the actual number of goals allowed. Coming into Saturday, Talbot had conceded 16.6 more goals than expected this season. That was the second worst GSAx in the league, ahead of only Seattle’s Philipp Grubauer (29.6 more than expected). It was also the worst mark of Talbot’s career and quite a dip from last season’s 5.62 more than expected.

Another way of looking at Talbot’s performance is the percentage of games he’s performing as well as expected — or “quality starts.” Of his 36 starts before Saturday, he only saved more goals than expected in 13. And only two of those had come since his return from injury. Of the quality starts, four are considered “stolen wins,” based on analyst Alan Wells’ method — games where his GSAx exceeds the final goal differential (minus goals the Wild have tallied on empty nets). Unsurprisingly, all four came prior to his injury.